Dr. Toghrul Aliyev
Research Lead
LIVESep 8, 2026 · 2:00 AM
One huge Blue Jays wager just delivered a six-figure win for a shadowy Polymarket trader whose best moves could be far more selective than they appear
Sep 8, 2026 · 1:30 AM
Anthropic's Fable 5.1 has pushed the LMArena ceiling to 1,514, and traders are now wagering on whether the benchmark breaks 1,520 before 2027
Sep 8, 2026 · 1:00 AM
Gary Oldman's Bond remark lifts Jack Lowden as traders weigh an unconfirmed casting choice
Sep 8, 2026 · 12:30 AM
Adam Hamilton’s primary win prompts forecast adjustments in a historically Republican Senate seat
Sep 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM
Despite Anthropic's IPO timeline keeping shifting, we found one Kalshi contract that still looks mispriced
Sep 7, 2026 · 2:10 PM
Today's prediction market analysis, whale alerts, and arbitrage spreads
Sep 7, 2026 · 2:00 PM
A brand-new Polymarket wallet has climbed into the all-time top 250 in nine days, but the habit that got it there can also lead to its downfall
Sep 7, 2026 · 12:00 PM
Apple is expected to unveil a foldable iPhone on September 9, and the market is split on whether it lands in September or later
Sep 7, 2026 · 9:30 AM
John Fetterman faces a fierce backlash from his own party, but the path from outrage to an empty Senate seat is far from simple
Sep 7, 2026 · 9:00 AM
OpenAI recently unveiled GPT‑6 Astra with talk of an “AGI era,” yet a single explicit declaration that would settle the market still has not arrived
Sep 7, 2026 · 8:00 AM
Israel’s airspace has withstood missile fire before, but a new September scare has traders bracing for the one disruption that would change everything
Sep 4, 2026 · 2:00 PM
On-chain data shows funds flowing from Bybit and Binance into six empty wallets, all betting against the Clarity Act bill signed into law in 2026
Sep 4, 2026 · 10:00 AM
After Driscoll’s sudden exit and Tillis’s public ultimatum to Trump, the pressure on Pete Hegseth is reaching a boiling point
Sep 4, 2026 · 3:00 AM
With the Liberals polling below 4%, we break down why their parliamentary survival looks unlikely ahead of the September 13 elections
Sep 4, 2026 · 2:30 AM
As Nicolás Maduro’s lawyers push to dismiss federal charges, a Brooklyn trial looms over the fate of a detained former head of state.
Sep 4, 2026 · 2:00 AM
U.S.–Iran talks have been frozen since June, but with mediators in Tehran and the UN looming, could a surprise round be closer than markets think?
Sep 3, 2026 · 2:00 AM
A Polymarket trader turned a winning streak into a high-stakes lesson about risk.
Sep 3, 2026 · 1:30 AM
Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro price is about to be revealed, but memory costs have turned a simple launch figure into a high-stakes market bet.
Sep 3, 2026 · 1:00 AM
Anthropic’s and Alibaba's latest releases reshuffled the WebDev leaderboard overnight, but Moonshot may already be preparing to overtake one of them.
Sep 3, 2026 · 12:30 AM
Morgan Wallen’s year-old album is dominating 2026, making him the clear favorite for Billboard’s top artist award.
Sep 3, 2026 · 12:00 AM
The US has already reported more tornadoes than the market’s top threshold, but the final count depends on what survives official review.
Sep 2, 2026 · 8:30 AM
A Polymarket trader with a $1.5 million track record is making a major bet on Russia’s ruling party. Here’s why it may be his easiest call yet.
Sep 2, 2026 · 5:30 AM
The US-Iran peace plan promised billions and nuclear limits, but with the deal already falling apart, one market still has plenty at stake.
Sep 2, 2026 · 4:00 AM
After surviving Trump’s sharpest criticism, Jeanine Pirro’s future as Washington’s top prosecutor remains one of the year’s biggest political gambles.
Sep 2, 2026 · 12:30 AM
One week he’s booed; the next, he’s meeting world leaders. Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi faces a tough road to keep his job through year-end.
Sep 2, 2026 · 12:00 AM
OpenAI's lead over Moonshot is shrinking on Arena, but timing may give Kimi another chance to claim second place by September 30.
Sep 1, 2026 · 2:00 AM
A brand‑new Polymarket wallet with only three lifetime bets is all‑in on one idea: Bitcoin makes a major move before 2027.
Sep 1, 2026 · 1:30 AM
TIME names its Person of the Year in mid‑December. After 2025’s “Architects of AI,” prediction markets have a clear new favorite.
Sep 1, 2026 · 1:00 AM
Traders are confident GTA 6's Extended Look misses 20 million views. Our math disagrees.
Sep 1, 2026 · 12:30 AM
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern votes for its state parliament on Sep 20. We explain who is ahead, what could still move it, and how our bet targets 8.7%.
Sep 1, 2026 · 12:00 AM
Which lab is close enough to Anthropic that a single new release would be enough to take the lead from it
Aug 31, 2026 · 12:30 PM
Inside the Polymarket account that turned his 89% accuracy into a $126,301 profit
Aug 31, 2026 · 11:04 AM
What does it actually cost to stop being Danish, and who in Greenland is willing to pay that bill?
Aug 31, 2026 · 3:00 AM
Lima votes for mayor on October 4. We explain why the frontrunner is not a candidate, what could still stop him, and how we target a 146% return.
Aug 31, 2026 · 2:30 AM
American forces struck Larak Island on Sunday. We explain what would actually have to happen for the island next door to change hands.
Aug 31, 2026 · 1:00 AM
A jury decides Lindsay Clancy's fate this week. We explain what 41 juries did with her defense, and what backing it pays.
Aug 29, 2026 · 4:00 PM
Can somebody be wrong 13 times in a row, be down over $100,000, and still be an insider?
Aug 29, 2026 · 3:30 PM
Iran’s last confirmed hits on Saudi were in the spring. With no fresh trigger, what’s the market missing in the fine print?
Aug 28, 2026 · 4:30 PM
The well-known Polymarket wallet Djdjdjekekek made $7,302,336 in seven days and then did something nobody expected
Aug 28, 2026 · 3:00 PM
Haaland’s path to most-searched athlete in 2026 hinges on a unique edge no rival can match right now.
Aug 28, 2026 · 2:30 PM
Why is 86% of the money in this market on coaches who can't win? We explain the odds and who the real pick is.
Aug 28, 2026 · 2:00 PM
We explain how we target a 33% return before Christmas using a simple betting strategy.
Aug 27, 2026 · 3:00 PM
Google names the world's most-searched show in December. One show on this board has already won that list once, and it did it the hard way.
Aug 27, 2026 · 2:00 PM
9 of the last 10 Italian titles went to the same few clubs. We outline a proven basket strategy that removes the need to predict a single winner.
Aug 27, 2026 · 11:00 AM
Bulgaria votes for president on October 25. We explain which candidate is the clear favorite and how our bet targets a 37% return.
Aug 27, 2026 · 10:30 AM
Rio de Janeiro has not had an elected governor since March, and the man about to become one lost this election before in 2018.
Aug 27, 2026 · 10:00 AM
In October the second-biggest Brazilian state elects a governor, and the likely winner is not the one you would think it is.
Aug 27, 2026 · 12:00 AM
22 world leaders are on this list, and only one has a scheduled way out of office before the New Year
Aug 24, 2026 · 2:30 AM
One of these teams has never won a World Series in 57 years of trying.
Aug 24, 2026 · 2:00 AM
Astronomers keep a list of every object that might hit Earth. The one most likely to arrive in 2026 is not on it.
Aug 21, 2026 · 12:30 PM
One of these two has every advantage a Democratic primary can hand a candidate. The other has a reason to think it will not be enough.
Aug 21, 2026 · 12:00 PM
What is left of Trump's Russia diplomacy after a year of phone calls, a summit canceled in five days and no envoy in Moscow since January?
Aug 21, 2026 · 11:30 AM
Oklahoma's attorney general won June by 1,141 votes. The man who lost has since borrowed $11.6m. Is that enough to turn a runoff?
Aug 21, 2026 · 11:00 AM
The job has been open since August 12, and the man most likely to take it would lose more than half his salary to do it
Aug 21, 2026 · 4:30 AM
A wallet that did not exist in February is now among the biggest crypto accounts on the Polymarket, betting on one specific idea
Aug 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM
What is a player actually worth to a club that will not sell him at any price and cannot replace him either?
Aug 20, 2026 · 10:30 AM
Two governments that own destroyers and missiles spent last month arguing about who hit whom with a wooden oar
Aug 20, 2026 · 3:30 AM
There is a way to back the Premier League title without picking a champion, and it has worked nine years running
Aug 20, 2026 · 3:00 AM
The trial that just succeeded is not due to finish until 2029, and no application has been filed with anybody yet
Aug 19, 2026 · 2:30 PM
The order landed 41 minutes before Atlético de Madrid and Málaga CF's kickoff, which is after the point where La Liga publishes its team sheets
Aug 19, 2026 · 8:30 AM
Democrats have not won this job in 32 years. Their answer this time is a man who spent most of his career as a Republican.
Aug 19, 2026 · 8:00 AM
The favorite team is led by an 18-year-old and coached by the man who won the first tournament in 2011. Is that enough to beat three former champions?
Aug 19, 2026 · 7:30 AM
There is a way to bet on this final without picking a winner, and it pays on Sunday, whichever of the five best teams lifts it
Aug 19, 2026 · 7:00 AM
The seat has been empty since April. Two Democrats have spent five months and $6m on it, and neither of them has won it yet.
Aug 18, 2026 · 5:30 AM
Despite Mark Cuban’s recent remarks that Bitcoin has “lost the plot”, this whale is doubling down on the opposite with a $700,000 bet
Aug 18, 2026 · 1:30 AM
Who takes the best AI model in the world from Anthropic? Will it be OpenAI, Google, or xAI?
Aug 18, 2026 · 1:00 AM
How does Ukraine retake a peninsula after spending August bombing the two railway bridges leading onto it?
Aug 18, 2026 · 12:30 AM
Can a Trump endorsement lose in the state that likes Trump most? Wyoming Republicans answer that today
Aug 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM
What is a Wyoming House seat worth? Steve Friess has lent his own campaign $2m to find out by tonight
Aug 17, 2026 · 6:00 AM
The account has 119 predictions behind it, and almost all of them are the same idea, just with different headlines
Aug 17, 2026 · 3:30 AM
GTA 6 has had three different release dates since its first trailer went out in December 2023, and has been delayed two times
Aug 17, 2026 · 3:00 AM
He was up 439% for the year through June and then lost roughly two thirds of the fund in a single month
Aug 17, 2026 · 2:30 AM
The Kremlin has confirmed that talks about helping Wildberries took place at the government level and that no decision has been reached yet
Aug 17, 2026 · 2:00 AM
Chelsea paid a British record fee for this football player in January 2023, and the price it wants today is £13m higher
Aug 14, 2026 · 10:00 AM
A Polymarket wallet made 2 trades in its entire life, won both, and guarantees a 100% accuracy
Aug 14, 2026 · 9:30 AM
Florida does not hold a runoff for governor, so whoever leads on Tuesday night wins outright
Aug 14, 2026 · 9:00 AM
Iran spent half of 2026 offline, and a new market bets on another total blackout before August 31
Aug 14, 2026 · 8:30 AM
Xi Jinping has taken one foreign trip in 2026, to Pyongyang in June, and traders are 95% sure he lands in Washington before the year ends
Aug 14, 2026 · 7:30 AM
Europe's central bank raised borrowing costs in June for the first time in 3 years, and traders are 86% sure it does it again on September 10
Aug 13, 2026 · 9:00 AM
Polymarket's third-biggest account by volume has traded $892 million, and last night, $364,470 of it went on a Dota 2 team
Aug 13, 2026 · 8:30 AM
A million dollars has been traded on a question Beijing answered in writing in February, and the answer was not the one buyers wanted
Aug 13, 2026 · 8:00 AM
Prediction markets are pricing whether former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will leave custody before 2027
Aug 13, 2026 · 7:30 AM
Sweden’s general election is just weeks away, and prediction markets are already pricing the race for the country’s next prime minister.
Aug 13, 2026 · 7:00 AM
Christopher Luxon survived his 2nd confidence vote in four months yesterday morning, and Polymarket still prices him at 7.5 cents to be gone by Sep 30
Aug 12, 2026 · 2:00 PM
The bet he placed on tonight's football match costs more than everything he has made on the platform since March
Aug 12, 2026 · 11:50 AM
Paris Saint-Germain have won Europe's biggest football trophy two years running and face a side missing 9 players
Aug 12, 2026 · 11:20 AM
Everyone pricing this market is watching the wrong navy, and the right one has been sitting in Oman since June
Aug 12, 2026 · 11:00 AM
Spain’s title has been won by five clubs in the past 31 seasons, with two of them accounting for 25 of those trophies
Aug 12, 2026 · 10:00 AM
Elon Musk has announced three release dates for Grok 4.6 since July 24, but none of them have materialized
Aug 11, 2026 · 4:00 PM
Islam Makhachev defends the UFC welterweight title in Philadelphia on Saturday against a man nobody has ever finished
Aug 11, 2026 · 3:00 PM
IShowSpeed and Kai Cenat have been playing the same Minecraft game since Friday and have killed none of the four bosses
Aug 11, 2026 · 2:40 PM
Denis Villeneuve was hired to direct the next James Bond film in June 2025, and there is still no actor 13 months later
Aug 11, 2026 · 2:00 PM
Liverpool's owners are days from announcing who is buying a third of the club, and Jeff Bezos may be involved
Aug 11, 2026 · 10:30 AM
He is the third-largest holder of the no side of a $6.4m market, and he opened the position today
Aug 10, 2026 · 12:30 PM
One of the 20 best esports traders on Polymarket made $500,000 this morning
Aug 10, 2026 · 9:30 AM
The far left is the favorite to run Berlin for the first time, and it got there because the mayor played tennis through a blackout
Aug 10, 2026 · 9:00 AM
The biggest game launch in history gets a Netflix premiere on August 27, and nobody involved will say how long it lasts
Aug 10, 2026 · 8:30 AM
The deal meant to disarm Hamas was announced eleven days ago, and the people betting on it still cannot agree that it happened
Aug 10, 2026 · 8:00 AM
The waterway that carries 20% of the world's oil has been shut since March, and traders have now stopped betting on its reopening
Aug 7, 2026 · 4:00 PM
Donald Trump has met ten world leaders face to face this year and Saudi Arabia's crown prince is not among them
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