Can Susan Collins win a sixth term in Maine?

Susan Collins has built a political career by winning voters who do not necessarily vote Republican in presidential elections. Despite Maine not backing a Republican for president since 1988, Collins still won five Senate elections. This year, however, traders believe that pattern may finally break. Kalshi’s Maine Senate market gives Democratic challenger Troy Jackson a 68% chance of winning, compared with 32% for Collins.

Collins’ success has largely depended on Maine’s willingness to split its ticket. Voters can support a Democrat for president while choosing Collins for the Senate, and they have done exactly that. In 2020, Joe Biden carried Maine by 9.07 percentage points, but Collins defeated Democrat Sara Gideon by 8.60 points on the same ballot.

The split-ticket pattern also creates a problem for polling models. Before the 2020 election, the polling average showed Gideon leading Collins by 5.5 points. In the end, Collins won by 8.6 points, producing a 14-point polling miss. If this year’s surveys are underestimating Collins by anything close to that amount, the current race could look very different on election night.

Unfortunately, the latest numbers do not provide much reassurance for either side. A CNN poll conducted from August 31 to September 6 put Jackson ahead 48% to 45%, but the three-point gap falls within the survey’s 3.7-point margin of error. The result is basically a coin flip. However, a polling error half as large as the one recorded in 2020 could be enough to put Collins back in front.

Republicans have also committed substantial resources to defending Collins. They have reserved $46.6 million in television advertising for the final nine weeks of the campaign, compared with $26.4 million reserved by Democrats. That spending gap could help Collins defeat Jackson, especially given the compressed campaign timeline and the limited time he has had to consolidate Democratic support.

Still, midterm elections typically punish the party controlling the White House, and Collins has never faced one while a Republican president was in power. That makes this election fundamentally different from her previous campaigns. Maine’s anti-Republican presidential voting record, the national midterm dynamic, and Collins’ weak favorability numbers all create conditions that could finally overcome her personal electoral strength.