Who will win Montana's Senate seat?

Montana Republicans have won the state’s last two Senate races, but this market is turning into a much closer contest than the recent history suggests. One candidate has a path that the current price may be underestimating.

Will Arman Tsarukyan beat Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331?

Arman Tsarukyan is the bigger name, but Mauricio Ruffy may have the exact style needed to make this matchup uncomfortable. The odds suggest one outcome, while the fight itself may point somewhere else.

Which player does the WNBA name MVP for the 2026 season?

One player has dominated the market as the regular season enters its final stretch. But a second contender is building a late-season case that could quickly change the conversation.

Which party wins Quebec's National Assembly election on October 5?

The party that dominated Quebec’s last election is no longer the market favorite. The Parti Québécois has moved ahead, but the latest numbers raise a question about whether traders are chasing momentum.

The whale of the day

One of six major CLARITY Act traders closed a position worth $141,000 just before Tuesday’s Senate vote. Was it a warning, a liquidity move, or simply a whale taking profit at the worst possible moment?

The arbitrage of the day

A sudden pricing gap opened between Kalshi and Polymarket on the December Fed decision. The 25 bps hike "Yes" contract was available at 43 cents on Kalshi and "No" was available at 42 cents on Polymarket. That's 85 cents combined for a guaranteed 15-cent spread, or a 17.64% return regardless of the outcome.

The opportunity has since narrowed. Kalshi’s "Yes" has climbed to 56 cents while Polymarket’s "No" remains at 42 cents.