What happened in prediction markets today
From a Paris courtroom to a Romanian runway to an unsigned contract in Madrid, here's what the markets did today
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The biggest election market on Polymarket cannot pick a winner
On July 7, France's appeals court cut Marine Le Pen's ban from office from 5 years to 15 months. Those 15 months had already passed. She announced her campaign that evening, and her price moved 20 cents before morning.
Jose Mourinho told the board he is keeping Vinicius
One line in Polymarket's rules decides it, and it has almost nothing to do with where Vinicius Junior plays next season. Arsenal have 34 days to beat that line, and nobody has picked up a phone yet.
Three Russian drones were shot down over Romania, and nobody was paid
Romanian jets fired on Russian hardware on Friday, again on Saturday, and again on Sunday. The market on a NATO-Russia clash moved a mere 12 cents and then stopped, because none of it counted. Interestingly, the clause that decides this has absolutely nothing to do with who pulled the trigger.
Israel and Lebanon signed a withdrawal with no date in it
The agreement runs village by village, and Israel judges when each one is done. Three villages were named on July 20, but Israeli forces left only one of them.
Trump didn't insult anyone for multiple days in July
On 96 of the last 107 days Trump has insulted somebody in public, and the market has spent all summer treating that as settled. But July was quite different.
The whale of the day
At 04:20 Eastern, one address spent $202,219 on the July Fed decision, buying the side that says there is no 25 basis point increase, at 73.6 cents. The Federal Reserve announces its decision only tomorrow.
The arbitrage of the day
Today's widest gap was 19 cents on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped album chart. Kalshi had YES on ARIRANG at 2 cents while Polymarket had NO at 79. Both sides together cost 81 cents and collect 23% whichever way the chart lands.
Five more sat above 7% this morning, on Bitcoin, the Colts, Bad Bunny, Trump's travel plans and the next prime minister of Israel.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
