Who wins Arizona's governor race: Katie Hobbs or Andy Biggs?

The most important question in Arizona's governor's race is not whether the state can vote Republican. It can. The more important question is whether Andy Biggs can turn that Republican strength into a victory over Katie Hobbs. So far, the available evidence says he is struggling to do that.

Polymarket's race market gives Hobbs an 89% chance of winning on November 3. The estimate is much stronger than the result of her first election. In 2022, Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake by less than one percentage point.

Arizona then looked more Republican two years later, when Donald Trump won the state by 187,382 votes. But after that, Arizona voters elected Democrat Ruben Gallego to the Senate instead of Kari Lake. In other words, many voters supported Trump without voting for every Republican candidate.

The reason why this is important is because Biggs is running as Trump's preferred candidate. He won the Republican primary on July 21 after receiving Trump's backing. His campaign therefore depends partly on turning Trump's support among Republican voters into support from independents and undecided voters.

The current polling does not show that is happening. Hobbs leads in all three recent surveys. The AARP poll found Hobbs ahead 52% to 44%. Noble Predictive Insights measured the race at 48% to 35%, and HighGround found Hobbs leading 49.5% to 34.3%.

Hobbs has also been able to define the race before Biggs built a comparable campaign operation. Since late May, she has spent more than $14 million on television and streaming advertisements. That is at least 15 times Biggs's spending. Noble found “some evidence” that these advertisements helped increase Hobbs's support by five points since May.

Trump's standing creates another problem for Biggs. In Noble's August survey, 58% of respondents disapproved of Trump's job performance, while 39% approved. Noble described the result as Trump's worst rating in its records. So, a candidate closely identified with Trump may have difficulty winning voters, which is exactly what we are observing now.

We think the market may still be underestimating Hobbs. Her polling lead, financial advantage, support among independents, and the short time remaining all point to a guaranteed win. Thus, we are buying “Yes” on Hobbs at 89 cents. If she wins, the position will return 12.36% in about a month.