Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds surged after his first-round lead, but runoff polls show a much tighter race against Lula. Are traders distrusting the polls?

Polymarket traders are now giving a 25-basis-point hike a 37% chance, up from 19% on Oct. 13, after CPI rose to 3.7%, above the forecast of 3.6%.

Discover why MMA tops the sports volatility rankings, how odds swing during fights, and what this means for prediction market traders.

Odds of META hitting $700 in October are rising, with Polymarket traders giving it a 51% chance, up from about 40% pre-market.

A Polymarket whale with $7.6m in lifetime profit bet $135,547 on Real Madrid to beat Roma. Is the 49% market price too low?

Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or market at 62%, but can his goals outweigh Lamine Yamal's World Cup win? Predictbook examines the odds.

With forecasts pointing towards a significant rise in US inflation, does this make an October hike any more likely?

Wembanyama leads the NBA MVP market at 33%, but does Gilgeous-Alexander offer better value at 16%? Predictbook examines the odds.

Abdul El-Sayed leads the Michigan Senate race, with Barack Obama set to join him next week. Could the high-profile appearance move the tight contest?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tops Polymarket’s Democratic nominee race, but several rivals stand within striking distance. The battle’s taking shape.

Cleveland's comeback stunned traders, but Tampa Bay remain favorites. Is the market undervaluing the Guardians ahead of the ALCS?

Manchester City sit at just 7% in Champions League markets. Is the 114-charge verdict influencing traders more than their form?

France’s presidential market reached $150 million in volume, with Le Pen leading, as legal battles, a divided left, and youth protests shape the race.

Trump’s criticism, election talk, and diplomatic pressure are putting Ukraine’s political future under the spotlight. But what are traders pricing in?

Dodgers World Series odds sit at 42%, despite Milwaukee's 103-win season. Is the market overpricing the three-peat story?

Traders give James Talarico the edge over Ken Paxton in a state Republicans have won for decades. Can Trump turn the race around?

White Sox World Series odds sit at 4%, but betting volume is soaring. Are traders spotting value or backing an underdog story?

Just a month ago, traders on Polymarket were giving OpenAI IPO a 5% chance to fall below $1T; that figure is now up to 23%.

Traders are increasingly betting against Pedro Sánchez’s political survival, but he may still have a campaign advantage.

A Goldman Sachs upgrade pushed Palantir higher, but it failed to break out above $200, so could it really fall to $186 in October?

Polymarket traders think Alphabet has a 30% chance of hitting $380, and I think those odds present a huge market opportunity.

The Knicks won the 2026 NBA title, but Kalshi gives them just a 9% chance to repeat. Is Polymarket's 13% price closer to fair value?

New US military discussions are putting Iran back in focus, but for traders, the US-Iran markets are far more nuanced.

Manchester City have a 20% chance of winning the Premier League. Could financial sanctions derail their title hopes, or are the odds too low?

Machado claims she’ll go back to Venezuela “as soon as possible,” but Polymarket traders aren’t convinced, betting on a later return.

Polymarket traders are giving the S&P 500 Index a 67% chance to outperform gold and bitcoin in 2026, but I think they are underpricing it.

The 49ers, Raiders, Giants and Browns are 13-3 combined, yet all four are underdogs. Are the records or the prices wrong?

South Africa’s annual inflation rate has spiked since April, but can it rise above 5% for the first time in three years?

Baltimore was a 70% favorite before Lamar Jackson’s injury doubts. Is the market overreacting?

The market is pricing Georgia’s governor race almost evenly after the candidates’ debate, leaving traders little room for error as early voting nears.