Is the market writing off Lamar Jackson too soon?
Baltimore was a 70% favorite before Lamar Jackson’s injury doubts. Is the market overreacting?
The Baltimore Ravens currently sit at 3-1 and face the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. For most of the past week, prediction markets priced the game in line with those records. On Kalshi, traders had priced the Ravens at around 70% to win the game up until the Lamar Jackson news broke.
However, that picture has now flipped, with traders pricing the Ravens at 40% on Kalshi, down 15 points in a day, while Polymarket prices them at 39%. With nearly $1.2 million traded on Kalshi alone, traders have made it one of the most active NFL markets of the week.
The side markets point to Baltimore's offense
The obvious explanation would be Atlanta’s 45-24 win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. However, the side markets point in another direction.
Traders on Kalshi have pushed the market for the Ravens scoring more than 20.5 points down 16 points to 48%. The equivalent market for the Falcons sits at over 24.5 points, after moving just 2 points. Traders have also flipped the spread, with the market now pricing Atlanta at 48% to win by more than 3.5 points.
If traders were simply buying into Atlanta's form, they would have pushed the Falcons' scoring expectations higher. Instead, they have directed almost the entire move toward Baltimore's attack. The reason is the most important player on the field, two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who remains a doubt for Sunday’s game because of an ankle sprain.
The drop-off might not be as steep as the price suggests. Tyler Huntley would step in as the replacement, and he’s no ordinary backup. The 2022 Pro Bowler is also a dual-threat quarterback who can run much of the same offense.
Last season, he stepped in and won key late-season games against the Bears and Packers to keep the Ravens' play-off hopes alive.
Predictbook's read is that traders are overreacting to the Lamar Jackson news. Even if Jackson doesn't line out on Sunday, the Falcons still have to navigate a 3-1 roster with a proven backup at quarterback, which presents a significant hurdle.
A 39% price implies traders give Jackson only about a one-in-eight chance of playing. If reports rate his chances higher than that, Baltimore will offer value. The team will publish its final injury report on Friday ahead of Sunday’s 8:20pm ET kickoff, and traders will watch it closely.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
