Political predictions analysis

Abdul El-Sayed leads the Michigan Senate race, with Barack Obama set to join him next week. Could the high-profile appearance move the tight contest?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tops Polymarket’s Democratic nominee race, but several rivals stand within striking distance. The battle’s taking shape.

France’s presidential market reached $150 million in volume, with Le Pen leading, as legal battles, a divided left, and youth protests shape the race.

Trump’s criticism, election talk, and diplomatic pressure are putting Ukraine’s political future under the spotlight. But what are traders pricing in?

Traders give James Talarico the edge over Ken Paxton in a state Republicans have won for decades. Can Trump turn the race around?

Traders are increasingly betting against Pedro Sánchez’s political survival, but he may still have a campaign advantage.

New US military discussions are putting Iran back in focus, but for traders, the US-Iran markets are far more nuanced.

Machado claims she’ll go back to Venezuela “as soon as possible,” but Polymarket traders aren’t convinced, betting on a later return.

The market is pricing Georgia’s governor race almost evenly after the candidates’ debate, leaving traders little room for error as early voting nears.

Roger Marshall's price is dropping as Kansas turns competitive, but traders still give the Republican an edge. The market might be behind the race.

Pedro Sánchez found a way to bring back the rejected housing decrees, and the market may not have had the chance to price this in.

As Romania’s President named the fourth PM candidate, the market jumped, but this is far from a done deal.

The trader wasn't betting with the polls but against the market, and Brazil's first round gave him a very different kind of edge.

Traders see the now-ex-president Vučić as the clear favorite for Serbia’s prime minister despite months of protests and mounting criticism.

Vladimir Putin is very much expected to remain Russia's leader through 2026. Yet, the market has seen millions in trading volume.

Democrats are charging to sweep both the House and Senate tomorrow, but a divided Congress is still a strong possibility.

Plot twist: he is sitting in a Brooklyn federal jail right now.

Polymarket gives Democrats the US Senate win, but their path leaves no room for error.

Polymarket favors Flávio Bolsonaro, but President Lula leads in recent polls. So what’s the market seeing that the polls may not?

Kotek's approval ratings are underwater, but her cash advantage could fuel a late-cycle surge

The battle for Alabama's Senate seat depends on turnout, messaging, and late-breaking issues

A disputed poll sample fuels debate over how close Taipei’s mayor race truly is

A fragmented opposition in Saxony-Anhalt may hand the initiative to the AfD despite its seat shortfall

Multiple pollsters now show Ceará’s governor race as a toss‑up, with momentum clearly shifting toward the incumbent

Arizona's governor race tilts toward Hobbs as Biggs struggles to convert Trump support into a winning coalition

A tightening polling gap obscures the arithmetic required to unseat Toronto's incumbent mayor

A leadership vacuum inside RNI creates an advantage for PAM in Morocco's parliamentary election

Florida’s Senate battle looks tight on paper, but the state’s voter rolls and recent polling history tell a different story

Polls show a tight contest, with Flanagan holding a narrow edge as Tafoya makes her first run for office