Political predictions analysis

A jury decides Lindsay Clancy's fate this week. We explain what 41 juries did with her defense, and what backing it pays.

Can somebody be wrong 13 times in a row, be down over $100,000, and still be an insider?

Iran’s last confirmed hits on Saudi were in the spring. With no fresh trigger, what’s the market missing in the fine print?

Bulgaria votes for president on October 25. We explain which candidate is the clear favorite and how our bet targets a 37% return.

Rio de Janeiro has not had an elected governor since March, and the man about to become one lost this election before in 2018.

In October the second-biggest Brazilian state elects a governor, and the likely winner is not the one you would think it is.

22 world leaders are on this list, and only one has a scheduled way out of office before the New Year

One of these two has every advantage a Democratic primary can hand a candidate. The other has a reason to think it will not be enough.

What is left of Trump's Russia diplomacy after a year of phone calls, a summit canceled in five days and no envoy in Moscow since January?

Oklahoma's attorney general won June by 1,141 votes. The man who lost has since borrowed $11.6m. Is that enough to turn a runoff?

The job has been open since August 12, and the man most likely to take it would lose more than half his salary to do it

Two governments that own destroyers and missiles spent last month arguing about who hit whom with a wooden oar

Democrats have not won this job in 32 years. Their answer this time is a man who spent most of his career as a Republican.

The seat has been empty since April. Two Democrats have spent five months and $6m on it, and neither of them has won it yet.

How does Ukraine retake a peninsula after spending August bombing the two railway bridges leading onto it?

Can a Trump endorsement lose in the state that likes Trump most? Wyoming Republicans answer that today

What is a Wyoming House seat worth? Steve Friess has lent his own campaign $2m to find out by tonight

The account has 119 predictions behind it, and almost all of them are the same idea, just with different headlines

Florida does not hold a runoff for governor, so whoever leads on Tuesday night wins outright

Iran spent half of 2026 offline, and a new market bets on another total blackout before August 31

Xi Jinping has taken one foreign trip in 2026, to Pyongyang in June, and traders are 95% sure he lands in Washington before the year ends

Prediction markets are pricing whether former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will leave custody before 2027

Sweden’s general election is just weeks away, and prediction markets are already pricing the race for the country’s next prime minister.

Christopher Luxon survived his 2nd confidence vote in four months yesterday morning, and Polymarket still prices him at 7.5 cents to be gone by Sep 30

Everyone pricing this market is watching the wrong navy, and the right one has been sitting in Oman since June

The far left is the favorite to run Berlin for the first time, and it got there because the mayor played tennis through a blackout

The deal meant to disarm Hamas was announced eleven days ago, and the people betting on it still cannot agree that it happened

The waterway that carries 20% of the world's oil has been shut since March, and traders have now stopped betting on its reopening

Donald Trump has met ten world leaders face to face this year and Saudi Arabia's crown prince is not among them