Who wins Alabama's Senate race: Barry Moore or Everett Wess?
The battle for Alabama's Senate seat depends on turnout, messaging, and late-breaking issues
Alabama usually votes Republican in Senate races, and this year looks no different. Tommy Tuberville is leaving his Senate seat to run for governor, opening a spot that Republicans are expected to hold easily. Their candidate, Barry Moore, has the backing of President Donald Trump, who will hold a rally for him in Mobile on October 2. Logically, Polymarket's traders price a Moore win at 97% probability.
Moore represents Enterprise in Congress and is serving his third term. He faces Democrat Everett Wess, a Birmingham lawyer, on November 3. The starting point favors Moore heavily as one nonprofit estimates that 55% of Alabama voters lean Republican compared to 36% who lean Democratic.
The last Democrat to overcome those odds in a Senate race was Doug Jones, who defeated Republican Roy Moore by 21,924 votes in 2017. That December election had no other statewide races on the ballot, and many Republicans had already turned against Roy Moore after accusations of sexual abuse and misconduct, which he denied.
David Niven, who studies politics at the University of Cincinnati, told the Alabama Reflector that a party loses its built-in advantage when its candidate is "extraordinarily, personally noxious" to voters and faces "a credible opponent." Put simply, voters must strongly dislike the Republican candidate and have a strong Democrat to support instead.
Neither condition exists this year. Voters are not rejecting Barry Moore because a July poll showed 47% backing him and 32% backing Wess. Plus, Wess lacks campaign funds. By June 30, Moore had raised $2.6 million from individual donors, while Wess had raised under $10,000 and lent his own campaign $70,643.
Turnout becomes the only realistic path for Democrats. In May, each party held a primary to pick its candidate, with voters choosing one party's ballot. About 43% chose the Democratic one, up from 22% four years earlier. Still, 483,000 people voted in the Republican Senate primary compared to 333,000 in the Democratic one, giving Republicans a 150,000-vote edge.
With voters behind Moore and Wess short of money, we expect Barry Moore to become Alabama's next senator. We think his chance of winning exceeds even the market's 97% estimate.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
