Will Tina Kotek or Christine Drazan govern Oregon next?

Oregon has voted for a Democratic governor in every election since 1986, including Tina Kotek's 2022 victory over Christine Drazan. The two are meeting again on November 3, and recent signs point toward Drazan. Yet on Polymarket, a bet on Drazan prices only a 14% chance of victory.

Kotek now has a record to defend, and the only two public polls show Drazan ahead. The first poll, conducted in June, had Drazan leading 48% to 44%. Following that result, the Cook Political Report, a newsletter that rates elections, moved Oregon toward Drazan twice, shifting to "Lean Democrat." That rating means Kotek remains slightly favored but sits just one step from a toss-up where either candidate could win.

A September poll by DHM Research, a Portland firm, explained that only 37% of voters in that survey approved of Kotek's performance while 59% disapproved, and Drazan led 45% to 43%. Each poll carries a margin of error of about 4 points in either direction, enough to wipe out leads of 4 and 2 points, making the race essentially even based on these numbers.

Interestingly, both polls were funded by Drazan's campaign, and similar polls showed her ahead in 2022 until the final month, before Kotek won with a late surge. President Donald Trump, a Republican like Drazan, now holds office, and his policies remain as unpopular in Oregon as Kotek's. Kotek also holds about three times more campaign funds than Drazan, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, another major election rater, still calls the race "Likely Democrat," which is a safer rating for her.

We expect Kotek to remain the favorite despite the tight polls. Oregon has chosen Democrats for 40 years, and Trump's unpopularity in the state works against Drazan.