Can Olivia Chow keep her job as Toronto's mayor?

Toronto is choosing a mayor for a full term on October 26, and Olivia Chow has led every major poll since she took office in 2023. Polymarket's market puts her at an 88% chance of winning. Her main rival is city council member Brad Bradford, and the latest survey from Liaison Strategies shows Chow at 47% of decided voters and Bradford at 40%, a seven-point gap. An earlier Liaison poll in early September had Chow up by 11 points, so Bradford has narrowed the race but still trails.

The city elects its mayor in a single round, and the candidate with the most votes takes the job, even if that total is well under half. Chow first won under that rule in a 2023 special election with 37.2% of the vote. This time, she starts with higher numbers, and a third candidate in the race makes it harder for Bradford to overtake her.

Chris Alexander entered the race on July 29 after serving as Canada's immigration minister under a Conservative government. He and Bradford both promise to freeze property taxes, so they compete for many of the same voters who want change. Alexander cannot leave the ballot because Ontario's deadline to withdraw passed on August 21. When asked in early September if he would drop out, he said he would consider it, but his campaign then said he “won't walk away,” so he stayed.

The split really helps Chow. The latest Liaison poll gives Chow 47% of decided voters, Bradford 40% and Alexander 10%. If Bradford and Alexander combined their support, they would reach 50% to Chow's 47%, but not all of Alexander's voters are ready to move to Bradford. Here's why.

Just before Alexander joined, Liaison had Chow ahead of Bradford 49% to 41%, a gap very close to what the newest poll shows. That means many of Alexander's supporters would not automatically back Bradford, so Bradford would need to win over undecided voters or pull some from Chow to close the distance.

Overall, every major poll since July has kept Chow in front, and the math does not change much even if Alexander exits. At 88 cents, a “Yes” bet on Chow returns 13.64% on the money spent if she wins, and we expect her to secure the full term on October 26.