Polymarket whale wins $1.57M on Norway vs Denmark soccer bet

A new Polymarket account called SmartPredictOrNot tried to turn a big loss into a quick comeback, and it almost worked. On Wednesday, the wallet loaded $1.97 million and put all of it on the Detroit Tigers to beat the Washington Nationals. The Tigers were favorites at a 63% probability of winning, but they lost 4-2.

Today, the same account came back with $2.64 million, more than it had just lost, and put all of it on Norway to beat Denmark at an average of 62.7 cents. Norway won 3-2, which paid $4.21 million and locked in a $1.57 million profit in one night. But even with that win, the account is still about $400,000 behind because the first bet was so large and the second payout was not big enough to fully cover it.

You see, a bet on a 62.7-cent favorite makes only about 59 cents of profit for every dollar staked, so winning back $1.97 million needed a $3.31 million stake. The account put in $2.64 million, about 80% of what it took, and fees on the two bets, $74,578, are part of the hole too.

Interestingly, the comeback could have nearly failed. The bet paid only on a Norway win, so a draw would have wiped him out. Initially, Norway led 2-0, but Denmark came back to 2-2 in the second half, and for about 12 minutes the market gave Norway only a 33% chance to win. Had it ended there, the account would be down $4.6 million after two bets.

To get back to breakeven with one more bet at the same price, the account would need to stake about $670,000 and win again. However, its record so far suggests it will likely bet far more than that.