Who wins Ceará's governor race: Elmano or Ciro Gomes?

Until recently, Ciro Gomes looked like the favorite to become governor of Ceará, a state in Brazil's northeast. Recent polls now show Governor Elmano de Freitas either tied with Ciro or slightly ahead.

Polymarket's market on the race gives Elmano a 63% chance of winning. The election takes place on October 4, and Elmano could keep his position without a second round if he receives more than half of the valid votes.

Brazil uses a runoff when no candidate gets a majority. If neither Elmano nor Ciro receives more than half of the valid votes, the two candidates will face each other again on October 25. That means the first round could decide the election, but it could also simply determine which candidate starts the final two-person contest with the advantage.

Elmano already won the governor's office in the first round in 2022. That result was not expected at the start of the campaign. One month before the election, the pollster Ipec had him in third place with 19% support. Its final poll showed him with 44% of the valid vote, but he ultimately won with 54.02%.

This year's campaign began in a similar way. Ciro held a large lead in August. A Datafolha poll conducted in the middle of that month put Ciro 19 points ahead. By September 25, the gap had fallen to just one point, with Ciro at 44% and Elmano at 43%.

The other polling firms have recorded the same change:

• Quaest showed Ciro's lead shrink from 11 points on September 4 to two points on September 23
• AtlasIntel first showed Ciro ahead by about five points in August, but its September 21 survey put Elmano ahead by half a point
• Real Time Big Data showed Elmano's lead increase from five points to seven between its surveys

Any individual poll can be wrong by two or three points, so several of these results still represent a statistical tie. However, what matters is that all four pollsters show Elmano gaining ground while Ciro's advantage has disappeared.

Elmano also has a strong base of support for his government. In a Quaest survey, 56% of voters approved of his performance. His connection to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva may provide another advantage, as Lula is also running for another term, and 55% of Ceará voters support him.

Even if Elmano doesn’t win in the first round, it’s quite likely he will in the October 25 runoff. Which is why we are buying “Yes” on the “Elmano de Freitas” contract at 63 cents.