Will Bolsonaro win Brazil's presidential election?

Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro, a Rio de Janeiro senator and a former president’s son, a 60% chance of winning Brazil’s presidency in 2026. However, the recent polls are much closer, with the current president taking the lead. So what’s the market seeing that the polls may not?

Brazil’s presidential race is a tight one, with spectators globally looking for signs pointing to the October 4 winner. At the time of writing (September 29, 17:00 UTC), Polymarket is pricing Bolsonaro, the right-wing Liberal Party (PL)’s candidate, at 59.7%, compared with 41% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, aka Lula. The minor candidates stand no chance, per the market participants.

Source: Polymarket

Notably, there was a massive shift in mid-September, when Bolsonaro overtook the three-time president Lula. And it wasn’t the first such shift either, so we may yet see another one by Sunday.

Meanwhile, more than $156.7 million has traded in the market by this point. 

And yet, there's a gap between Polymarket’s pricing and the first-round polling, with the latter showing a slight advantage for Lula. 

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll published on September 29 puts Lula ahead 45.3% to 42.2%. 

Source: atlasintel.org/poll/brazil-national-2026-09-29

That said, a hypothetical runoff is still very much tied at Bolsonaro 47.7% and Lula 47.6%, as Reuters reports.

So why is the market pricing Bolsonaro higher?

One obvious answer is the Bolsonaro political machine. Flávio is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, whose endorsement has given the current candidate access to the family’s deeply loyal and established conservative base.

Jair, however, is barred from running himself and is serving a 27-year sentence for leading a plot to retain power after losing the 2022 election.

That said, the younger Bolsonaro is facing scrutiny of his own, particularly over the “rachadinha” case about allegedly embezzling public funds, as well as a newer investigation over R$61 million (US$ 11.7 million) in funding for a film about his father. Disgraced former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro, himself at the center of a major fraud investigation, provided this funding. 

Meanwhile, Lula faces a different challenge. He’s ahead in the polls’ first round, but the runoff numbers clearly show the very thin separation between Brazil’s two dominant political forces. So, with the election potentially heading toward a runoff, the first-round results may not mean much. 

At the same time, the Bolsonaro family dynamics and the junior’s recent scandals could still act as major market-shifters.