Who becomes governor of Minas Gerais, Cleitinho or Simões?

On October 4, the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais elects a governor. It is the second-biggest electorate in the country, and the man leading the race by 18 points used to sell vegetables in a market town called Divinópolis.

Cleiton Gontijo de Azevedo, who everybody calls Cleitinho, went from that stall to a council seat, then the state assembly, then the Senate, where in 2022 he took 4.2 million votes, more than any other candidate in Minas Gerais. Polymarket's market on the race predicts a 76.7% probability that he will become governor, and we believe he will.

The governorship already belongs to Mateus Simões, who has been running Minas Gerais since March, when his boss Romeu Zema resigned after seven years to run for president and left the chair to his deputy. The problem is, Simões is polling fourth despite having the most airtime.

Every candidate in Brazil gets free time on television and radio for the five weeks before the vote. The amount each one gets is set by how many seats each candidate's party won in the congressional election of 2022. Cleitinho gets 1 minute 7 seconds a night. Simões gets 2 minutes 46 seconds, and he goes first.

That sounds like a problem for Cleitinho until you look at what airtime has actually done in this state. When the 2018 broadcasts opened, Antonio Anastasia had 4 minutes 32 seconds a night, and Romeu Zema had six seconds. Zema was polling 3%. He won the first round outright with 42.73% and the runoff by 71.80 to 28.20.

Zema won because of a second question Brazilian pollsters ask. Not who you will vote for, but who you would never vote for. In 2018, four out of ten said they would never vote for the sitting governor, while only one out of ten said it about Zema.

Cleitinho is in that same position now, and he is starting from first place rather than third. One voter in five in Minas Gerais rules him out. For the two men closest behind him, it is two in five.