Which party wins the most seats in Morocco's parliament?

Morocco's September 23 parliamentary election will decide which party forms the next government, and the market is betting heavily on a shift in power. The Authenticity and Modernity Party, known as PAM, trades at 92 cents on Polymarket's market for the party that wins the most seats. In other words, PAM is likely to overtake the National Rally of Independents, or RNI, which has led the government for the past five years.

Under Morocco's system, the king must choose the prime minister from the party that finishes first, so the top spot determines who runs the government. In 2021, the RNI came first with 102 seats, and PAM followed with 87, and the two parties then governed together under RNI leader Aziz Akhannouch.

This time everything looks different because the RNI is running without Akhannouch at the top. He stayed on as prime minister after youth-led GenZ 212 protests shook the government in late 2025, but he stepped down as party leader in February and is not a candidate this time. That leaves the RNI without its most recognizable figure, even as voters express anger over jobs, hospitals, and schools.

So, logically, PAM has used that opening to build a stronger slate. The party recruited local power brokers who can deliver their own voters, some of them defecting from the RNI. Its biggest addition came on July 25, when Budget Minister Fouzi Lekjaa joined the list. Lekjaa also runs Morocco's football federation, and Le360, a leading Moroccan news website, has called him the country's most popular figure, giving PAM a name with broad appeal.

Unlike the USA, Morocco has no exact polling data because election law bans opinion polls before the vote. Still, observers see the momentum. Azeddine Hannoun, a law professor at Ibn Tofail University, told Hespress that PAM could win the most seats for the first time, citing Lekjaa's popularity and PAM's ability to claim credit for government achievements while avoiding blame for failures.

Now, although the RNI still has organizational strength, without Akhannouch on the ballot and facing a PAM slate loaded with local influencers and Lekjaa, the RNI is simply at a disadvantage. That is why the market's 92 cents on PAM makes sense, and we are buying “Yes” at that price for an 8.70% return.