Serbia’s leader Vučić could swap presidency for more power

Aleksandar Vučić is no longer Serbia’s president, but Polymarket traders are betting that he’ll soon be back at the center of government. And not without good reason.

The market currently gives Vučić about a 67% chance of becoming the next prime minister, for the third premiership. He’s currently well ahead of student-list leader Ilija Srdanović, who’s sitting at 24%.

This is not a large market, in comparison to the markets focused on elections in much larger countries. Currently, more than $685,820 has been traded. However, this PM election, as well as the upcoming presidential election, are the focus of the wider international community.

Vučić is not really leaving Serbian politics, which he’s been the center of for more than a decade. He served as the PM from 2014 until 2016, then again from 2016 until the snap election that year led him into the office of the President of the country.

Yet, he resigned on September 27, seven months before his second term was due to end, and he’s constitutionally forbidden from running again. However, this resignation clears the way for him to run in the early parliamentary election on October 25 this year as the lead candidate of the ruling camp.

Importantly, the PM has more power in Serbia, but Vučić held most of it as the president as well, with full support of the current PM and acting President Ana Brnabić. Essentially, there's no doubt he's planning to continue calling the shots.

But traders are also trying to price who’ll inherit the office Vučić has dominated since 2017. The separate presidential election market puts Miloš Vučević at roughly 35%, followed by Vladan Đokić at 22%, Ana Brnabić at 21%, and Đuro Macut at 15%. This is a much more fragmented race than the market for the PM, but the October parliamentary result could certainly reshape it.

Criticism against Vučić rises

Srdanović, previously supportive of Vučić’s SNS party, now heads the Students Win list, which emerged from the colossal student-led protest movement. The movement blames Vučić and his government for massive institutional failures and demands stronger rule of law and accountability, among other things. Srdanović has said he expects a change of government and rules out cooperation with Vučić’s camp.

Vučić’s biggest problem is growing local and international resistance to his model of rule. The 2024 Novi Sad railway-station canopy collapse killed 16 people and triggered protests lasting nearly two years now.

Vučić and his government are accused of corruption and democratic backsliding, along with blatant pressure on independent media. The EU continues to flag significant weaknesses in high-level corruption investigations, media pluralism, and political influence over institutions. The Council of Europe too has scrutinized Serbia’s democratic institutions.

And all of this is happening as Vučić and the ruling party keep Serbia on two seats: wanting to have it as an EU member state, but not wanting to break any of the brotherly ties with Russia.

All in all, this situation and the related market will likely draw more attention as the elections near.