Why $23M is riding on Vladimir Putin staying in power

Polymarket traders have put almost $23 million in volume behind the question of whether Russia’s long-time leader Vladimir Putin will leave office by year-end. With “No” at 97%, it’s interesting to observe what it is that keeps traders coming back to an obvious bet.

Vladimir Putin is nowhere near leaving the Kremlin, having been sworn in for another six-year presidential term in May 2024. The earliest he’d leave, based on the term alone, is 2030.

Of course, there are other reasons to leave the post early, per Russia’s constitution, such as resignation, an inability to perform the duties, or impeachment. But then again, Putin never publicly indicated he’d resign or that he’s unable to do the job, and despite some (perhaps symbolic) calls for impeachment, the legal framework makes that move practically impossible.

All this to say that the December 31 outcome on Polymarket is rather straightforward. As of October 2 (17:00 UTC), the market prices Putin leaving office at just 3%, versus 97% for staying.

And yet, the outcome has generated around $23 million in trading volume, making it a heavily traded date in the market.

Why trade a “sure thing”?

A key thing to keep in mind is that the volume doesn’t automatically mean there are traders who actually believe Putin is about to fall – that after nearly three decades of holding the power, he’d let go of it or be forced to. It’s not impossible, but highly unlikely, and the traders know it.

Prediction-market volume measures the amount that’s traded over time, and traders can buy, sell, and trade a position repeatedly, producing volume as they do. This is the case even when the underlying probability barely moves.

However, there’s also a trading appeal to consider. While this “No” share offers a somewhat small potential return, the perceived probability of this event is still high. Some can use these positions as part of their broader strategies, and others could be betting on the less-probable outcome just in case a sudden political shock makes it extremely valuable.

In September, Putin's United Russia secured a record 355 of 450 State Duma seats, and on October 1, he was publicly conducting foreign-policy business. There are no signs of him going anywhere over the next three months.

So the interesting part with this market isn’t really that traders expect Putin to leave, but that millions of dollars are changing hands and accumulating around a sure bet on the one hand, and on the other, a tiny possibility the market knows is unlikely – that the long-held political order breaks before 2027.