A top 30 Polymarket politics trader backs United Russia in the Duma vote
A Polymarket trader with a $1.5 million track record is making a major bet on Russia’s ruling party. Here’s why it may be his easiest call yet.
A wallet that made $425,000 on South Korea's presidential nomination, $209,000 on Canada's next prime minister, $151,000 on Poland's president, and $137,000 on Thailand's parliament has turned its attention to Russia.
On Tuesday, gopfan2 spent about $57,000 buying Vladimir Putin's party at 60 to 66 cents, 18 days before Russians elect a new State Duma. That takes the account to 207,218 shares of 'yes' on United Russia winning the most seats, $137,000 in cost at an average of 66 cents, and 36% of everything it owns. The avatar on the profile is the Russian flag.
His track record is the reason why we want to pay attention to him. Since August 2024, the account has made $1.5m across 2,040 predictions, $1.1m of that in politics, which puts it 30th on Polymarket's all-time list. It has priced, managed, and contested elections on four continents and been wrong once, losing $168,000 on George Simion in Romania.
Russia is the easiest call it has ever made. United Russia holds 323 of the Duma's 450 seats and took 49.8% of the vote in 2021. Half the chamber is elected in single-member districts, where the party wins almost everything, and the other half needs only a plurality of a list vote in which no rival is close.
If he wins, he will get $207,218 against $137,000 of his own money, meaning a profit of $70,040, which would rank about seventh on his own list of biggest wins.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
