Do Trump and Putin meet in Shenzhen or nowhere at all?
What is left of Trump's Russia diplomacy after a year of phone calls, a summit canceled in five days and no envoy in Moscow since January?
Trump and Putin last shook hands on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage. There was no deal. A year and six days later, they have not met again, and Polymarket's next meeting market prices no meeting at all this year at 57.5 cents. China is 39.5. 13 other countries share the remaining 3 cents.
The contract settles on the location of the next in-person encounter before December 31. And there is one potential building. APEC's leaders meet in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19, and Yuri Ushakov said on May 20 that Putin has confirmed he is going and that if both leaders are in China they will probably cross paths and hold some kind of meeting. The market opened six days later, which is why China is the only venue with a real price.
At the same time, on June 20, Trump said we're going back for a big conference that's in China. He was in Beijing in May, Xi Jinping is due at the White House on September 24, and the midterms fall on November 3, two weeks before Shenzhen. So, although this would be Trump's second trip to China, it's still quite possible to happen, as he confirmed it himself. Which is exactly why we are betting on the meeting to take place in China.
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