Can Manchester City win the Premier League despite financial charges?

Manchester City sit on top of the Premier League table after winning their first five games of the season. However, the league has also found them guilty on 114 of the 115 financial charges it brought against them since the last game took place.

Prediction markets are trying to price both facts at once. Polymarket gives City a 20% chance of winning the title, far behind Arsenal at 61%, in a market that has traded over $21 million. City's contract is the most traded on the board at $3.1 million, more than double Arsenal's.

Smaller side markets on Polymarket show what traders fear in the potential decision. Traders give a points deduction of 50+ points a 29% chance, an outright expulsion from the league a 20% chance, and no decision a 14% chance. A separate market puts City's chances of relegation at 31%.

Looking at past transgressions elsewhere

History suggests the scandal won't hurt City's football ambitions unless the league imposes a meaningful points deduction.

The Houston Astros were caught sign stealing in 2019, prompting MLB to fine them $5 million and strip them of draft picks. The team also lost its manager and general manager. No players received punishment, and the team went on to reach the ALCS the following year, the World Series in 2021, and become world champions again in 2022.

Major football leagues have imposed points deductions before. In 2006, authorities relegated Juventus and stripped them of two titles due to the Calciopoli scandal. In 2023, Juventus received another deduction, losing 10 points, which knocked them out of the Champions League places.

The league hasn't set sanctions yet, and City plans to appeal. Therefore, a final ruling might not come until 2027. Polymarket's timing market agrees, with traders giving only a 42% chance that the league announces the punishment by December 18.

Are Manchester City's 20% title odds too low?

At Predictbook, our read is that City's 20% price isn't overpriced and may even lean slightly cheap. Before the verdict, bookmakers had City at around 45% to win the league.

Falling to 21% implies roughly a coin flip that a season-ending sanction lands before May, which looks aggressive given how slowly the case has moved.

That's why City's 20% chance of winning the title looks interesting. The first big test now that the international break has ended is on the pitch, with Liverpool hosting them on October 11.