OpenAI IPO odds of failing the $1T test are rising fast

OpenAI is highly expected to go public in 2027, although the odds of listing by March 30, 2027 have now fallen to 25%, while a listing by June 30, 2027 is at 41%.

Whether or not OpenAI accelerates or delays its IPO could come down to how the Anthropic IPO performs, let this year. The two are the biggest pure-play privately-held AI companies, with their valuations also running close to each other, based on the last fundraisings. 

According to data on Forge Global, Anthropic’s last raise in May valued the company at $965 billion, while OpenAI’s closed its March funding at a valuation of $852 billion.

Therefore, if Anthropic’s goes public at $2 trillion, as per earlier reports, the question would be: why should OpenAI’s IPO not be at least half the value?

For some reason, traders on Polymarket are increasingly betting on OpenAI's IPO falling below the $1 trillion mark. On September 11, the company’s chances of failing the $1 trillion test were at a low 5%; that figure has since risen to 23%.

Overall, the OpenAI IPO valuation contract on Polymarket has attracted over $311k in volume, with about $67k of that locked in the less than $1 trillion valuation. The $2.5T valuation has received the second-highest volume so far, with over $68k, and traders are giving it an 18% chance.

Why OpenAI IPO is nailed down to top $1 trillion

When OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in March, analysts were forecasting an annualized revenue of about $70 billion. That figure has since fallen to $50 billion, according to a report by the Financial Times on Thursday. 

So does this affect OpenAI’s IPO expectations for the future? Probably not by much. The discrepancy has since been attributed to the fact that analysts were comparing OpenAI’s revenue forecasts with those of close rival Anthropic, which includes revenue from its cloud partners, something that OpenAI does not do. 

But if OpenAI’s revenue ends up being roughly 28%-30% lower than Anthropic’s, why should its IPO be worth less than 50% of its main rival?

The numbers suggest that OpenAI’s IPO should still value the company well above the crucial $1 trillion market. 

Elon Musk has stated on multiple occasions that he now sees SpaceX as an AI company after its merger with xAI in February. As previously covered by Predictbook, SpaceX is on course for $46 billion in revenue in 2026, and went public at a valuation of $1.7 trillion. So, why would OpenAI, which is on course for $50 billion in annualized revenue, be valued any less?

Moreover, Bloomberg, citing people “familiar with the matter”, on Friday reported OpenAI still expects to reach annual revenue of $70 billion, if not higher. The attributed to lower figures being impacted by projections over a shorter period.

All this points to a no-bet on the OpenAI IPO valued at less than $1 trillion being a smart bet. And of course, OpenAI will have to go public by the end of 2027 for this contract to resolve.