Is the market underrating a Guardians team that refused to lose?
Cleveland's comeback stunned traders, but Tampa Bay remain favorites. Is the market undervaluing the Guardians ahead of the ALCS?
The Cleveland Guardians looked finished a week ago after losing their first two games of the Division Series at home to the Chicago White Sox. They then went on to win three straight, including Saturday's decider in Cleveland, to reach the American League Championship Series. Tonight, they open in St. Petersburg against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The prediction market didn't see this coming, as Polymarket priced Cleveland at just 10% to win the World Series before Game 5. The White Sox were at 5%, but their contract had over $3 million in volume, which was more than any other team in the $4 million market and well over double Cleveland's $1.3 million.
The Rays are now at 23% to win the World Series, the same level as Milwaukee and behind only the Dodgers. Set Tampa Bay's price against the combined price of the two teams fighting for the other ALCS spot, and the market was treating the Rays as roughly a two-to-one favorite to win the pennant.
Tampa Bay has earned that respect, as the team won the AL East at 98-64, had the best record in the league, and swept the Yankees without too much trouble. Drew Rasmussen didn't allow a hit until two outs in the eighth inning of Game 1 of that series. The Rays also hold home-field advantage.
The case for Cleveland
The Guardians are a different team from the one that stumbled through the opening two games. Their bats woke up with an 11-hit, 9-3 win in Game 3, with their season on the line, and they haven't lost since. They also have the American League's strikeout leader in Gavin Williams, who eliminated 12 White Sox hitters in Game 5.
Cleveland won the AL Central at 85-77 with a modest record, but a few star pitchers and a bullpen decide short series, and that's where Cleveland is strongest.
Predictbook thinks the market has Tampa Bay right as the favorite, but the pricing gap is just too wide. A team that just won three straight elimination games with an ace capable of taking over a game has a better than one-in-three shot at winning a seven-game series.
The White Sox story is the warning here, as traders poured money into the underdog with the best narrative and watched them lose. The opposite mistake, writing off the underdog that just proved it can survive, is just as easy to make.
If the Guardians manage to steal the first game, their price will look a whole lot different.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
