Can South Africa’s rising inflation top 5% in December?

South Africa’s inflation rate has risen significantly since April, when it hit 4%, up from 3.1% in March and 3% in February. The April spike was the first time it reached 4% in several months, having spent most of 2025 relatively below 3.5%. 

Overall, South Africa’s bureau of statistics reported an annualized inflation rate of 3.21% in 2025, the lowest in decades. However, with the rate rising significantly since April, traders on Polymarket think it could well top 5% by the end of the year.

On Polymarket, "South Africa's annual inflation in 2026" to top 5% trades at $0.61, with traders giving it a chance of 61% of happening. It has also received the second-highest volume, with $17,750, behind the 4.4-4.7% target, which has attracted $26,802 in volume and has a chance of 23% of happening. This is probably the range I think the annual inflation rate might fall within at the end of the year.

However, because it is relatively restrictive, thus raising the risk, perhaps a smarter option would be to go for a no bet on an over 5% inflation rate. As of this writing, it had about a 39% chance of happening and traded at $0.39 per share.

Why South Africa’s rising inflation rate could be pegged back

While the South African annual inflation rate crossed 5% as recently as 2023 and 2022, it has only managed to do that four times over the last 11 years. Before the two back-to-back finishes above 5%, you would have to go all the way back to 2017 and 2016, when it last topped 5%.

Therefore, the numbers here do not overwhelmingly support another 5%+ finish. In fact, if you look closer at the recent trend, South Africa’s annual inflation rate fell in each of the last three years, by 0.96% in 2023, 1.72% in 2024, and 1.15% in 2025.

Granted, it rose significantly this year, but it is still a huge spike from 3.21% to 5%. Barring 2022, when figures were significantly affected by the adverse economic effects of Covid-19, you would have to go all the way back to 2016, when South Africa’s annual inflation rate grew by more than 1.75%, when it posted a change of 2.08%. And then after that, you would have to go all the way back to 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis.