Why Isn’t the NFL Market Buying Four Hot Starts?
The 49ers, Raiders, Giants and Browns are 13-3 combined, yet all four are underdogs. Are the records or the prices wrong?
Four of the NFL’s best starts are heading into Week 5 as underdogs.
On Polymarket, the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers are priced at 40% for their trip to the 3-1 Seattle Seahawks. The 3-1 Las Vegas Raiders are at 38% against the 2-2 New England Patriots.
The 3-1 New York Giants are at 38% against the Washington Commanders, while the 3-1 Cleveland Browns are at 45% against the 1-3 New York Jets.
What the market is predicting
Combined, the prices imply that these four teams will win about 1.6 of their four games. A clean sweep is roughly a 2.6% outcome, or about 37-to-1 against, while three or more wins is roughly an 18% chance, close to one in five.
Part of the reason for the gap is location, as all four of these teams are on the road this week. However, home-field advantage alone rarely turns a 3-1 team into a 38% underdog against a 1-3 side.
The more likely explanation is that the market trusts the underlying performance over the win-loss record.
Football analysts have long found that point differential can predict future results better than a team’s record. Four games are a small sample in which a few close wins can flatter a team.
The trading data adds another dimension. Kalshi shows heavy activity in several of these matchups, including roughly $830,000 traded on Raiders-Patriots and $381,000 on Giants-Commanders.
Despite that activity, traders have barely moved the prices. Every trader backing a hot record still needs someone willing to take the other side at the same price.
Predictbook’s view is that the market has the stronger case. When significant trading fails to shift a price, it can suggest that traders on the other side remain willing to defend that level. In these matchups, the prices continue to favor the opponents of the four hot-start teams.
That doesn’t mean all four favorites will win, and the prices themselves leave plenty of room for an upset or two. But anyone backing the records across the board is taking roughly a one-in-five shot that three or more come through.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
