Is Wembanyama overpriced in the NBA MVP market?

The NBA season starts on October 20, and the opening night schedule closes with a rematch of last season's Western Conference finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. It will also feature a showdown between the two players at the top of the MVP market.

Before a ball even bounces, Kalshi's MVP market has already made its call. Victor Wembanyama is the favorite at 33%, followed by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has won the award the last two years running, at about 16%.

Traders have exchanged close to a million contracts on the board, making it a significant market rather than just a few speculative bets.

An MVP price in October is a projection, as nothing has happened so far. Traders are pricing narrative, trajectory, and last season's evidence.

On that evidence, Wembanyama's case is strong. He unanimously won Defensive Player of the Year, his Spurs beat the Thunder in a seven-game conference final, and he's still improving.

Voters also tend to tire of giving the same player the award year after year, which works against Gilgeous-Alexander. Only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird have won three consecutive MVP awards.

The case for the incumbent

Gilgeous-Alexander's numbers are hard to argue with. He averaged 31.1 points per game last season and led Oklahoma City to 64 wins. He's trying to become the first player since Bird to win three in a row. A 16% price suggests the market thinks he has roughly a one-in-six chance of doing it.

There's also an availability question for Wembanyama. Award eligibility rules require 65 games, and he only played 64 last season. A favorite who has never cleared that threshold carries a risk the current price doesn't fully reflect.

Predictbook's read is that Wembanyama deserves to be the favorite, but 33% is a rich price for a player who has never won the award and fell one game short of eligibility last year. Gilgeous-Alexander at 16% offers value on the board. He's the most proven player in the race, and voter fatigue is just a theory, not a hard rule.

Opening night won't settle anything, but it's the first time the market gets new information. A dominant Wembanyama performance will push his price higher, which will only make Gilgeous-Alexander even better value.