Is Harry Kane a fair Ballon d'Or favorite without a World Cup?
Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or market at 62%, but can his goals outweigh Lamine Yamal's World Cup win? Predictbook examines the odds.
The 70th Ballon d'Or will take place in London on October 26, marking the first time the ceremony has left Paris. Prediction markets think they already know the winner.
Polymarket's Ballon d'Or market, which has traded over $4.48 million, makes Harry Kane a 62% favorite. Lamine Yamal is second at 29%, and nobody else is above 3%.
It's a striking verdict on a season in which Kane once again failed to win the biggest prize available. Yamal won La Liga with Barcelona before following it up with a World Cup with Spain. Kane's England finished third.
The case for Kane is the numbers. He scored 61 club goals for Bayern Munich last season as they won the Bundesliga and German Cup double. Then he added another six goals at the World Cup. Nobody else scored as prolifically during the voting window.
Yamal's case rests more on team honors, as injuries limited his influence at the World Cup. The market has also moved a long way to get to this point.
Lionel Messi was the clear favorite before the World Cup. Traders have put $4.5 million into his contracts, more than Yamal's $4 million, despite Messi now trading below 3%. Kane's contracts have attracted $5.6 million.
Does the World Cup decide the vote?
It's tempting to assume that voters reward the World Cup winner, but recent history says otherwise. Germany won the World Cup in 2014, but Cristiano Ronaldo took the Ballon d'Or.
In 2018, France won the tournament, but Luka Modric claimed the award despite finishing on the losing side in the final with Croatia. These results show that voters are willing to back the outstanding individual over the player who lifted the trophy.
Predictbook sees Kane at 62% as an undervalued price. Kane's goal count is the type of headline number that will wow the table of voters. Injuries also disrupted Yamal's season, so he didn't have anywhere near as notable an impact as he had in the previous couple of seasons.
The only risk to Kane is a last-minute move in sentiment or a ballot that rewards Yamal's age and trajectory more than his most recent season.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
