Can Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year in 2026?

Grand Theft Auto VI is scheduled to launch on November 19, 2026, just three weeks before The Game Awards ceremony on December 10, and the prediction markets are already treating it as the overwhelming favorite for Game of the Year. Kalshi prices GTA VI at about 73 cents to win, with Resident Evil Requiem and Control Resonant far behind at 16 and 9 cents, respectively.

The Game Awards has not published a formal 2026 eligibility cutoff, but the last four shows used a window between November 17 and November 22 for nominations, which means a November 19 release almost certainly clears the bar. The important question is whether the jury of 154 media outlets, which accounts for 90% of the vote, will feel comfortable crowning a game most of them will have played for only about two weeks before voting closes.

Although no Rockstar title has ever won Game of the Year in the show’s history, to the studios’ defense, each time they lost, they were competing with exceptionally good games, for example, God of War.

However, 2026 is a weak year for the gaming industry. Nothing has scored above Big Walk’s 91 on Metacritic so far, and the best-reviewed large release, Resident Evil Requiem, sits at 89 despite strong sales. When there are no clear 95+ contenders, jurors may be more willing to reward the biggest game of the decade rather than split the vote.

And when you add to all the facts mentioned above that there is no major game even scheduled for release before the Game Awards, it becomes evident that buying “Yes” on the GTA VI contract at 73 cents is the smartest course of action.