Will Congress ban itself from trading stocks before the end of 2026?

A congressional stock‑trading ban has broad public support and a presidential push, but little legislative momentum, and we found a Kalshi market pricing exactly that.

Representative Anna Paulina Luna filed a discharge petition on December 2, 2025, to force her own leadership’s hand on H.R.5106, the Restore Trust in Congress Act, saying, “Political games have already started to play out behind the scenes. I’m not waiting any longer.” Nine months later, the petition has only 84 of the 218 signatures it needs, with the last one arriving on June 11, and the bill still stuck in committee.

Right now, two different bills are moving at two different speeds. Luna’s target, H.R.5106, is a full ownership ban with 142 cosponsors but no committee action since September 3, 2025. The bill that actually passed the House, 232–198 on July 22, 2026, is H.R.7008, the Stop Insider Trading Act, which only bars new purchases, allows members to sell existing holdings, and includes a voter‑ID provision Democrats call a poison pill. Its Senate companion, S.4134, has sat untouched since March 18.

Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, the calendar presents huge challenges to any late-year breakthrough. The Senate will return from recess on September 14, then will be out for five straight weeks around the midterms, and after that target adjournment around December 18, leaving a narrow window to move new legislation.

And this timeline sits on top of a long record of failure. Since the STOCK Act in 2012, more than a dozen ban bills have been introduced across seven Congresses, and none has become law. It seems unlikely a congressional stock‑trading ban will be signed into law anytime soon, especially this year. So, we are buying “No” on the “Before 2027” contract at 96 cents to capture 4.16% on December 31.