A week-old Polymarket wallet bets $2.69 million on an NFL match

A Polymarket account that did not exist on September 7 has built a position worth about $2.69 million in six days. Its nickname is 00gringo00, and its first trade was placed on September 8 at 4:47 PM UTC. It has since traded only seven markets. Tonight, it holds the largest position on the Broncos-Chiefs game in Kansas City.

The account’s strategy has been quite consistent. Every dollar it has invested went into contracts priced between 52 and 66 cents, with roughly three-quarters bought in the 50-cent range and the rest in the 60s. Its dollar-weighted average purchase price is 57.11 cents. It has never bought a heavy favorite or a longshot. Instead, it repeatedly chooses one side of a relatively even market and builds a large position in that single outcome.

00gringo00 also avoids waiting for official settlement. It sells winning positions at 99.9 cents after the result is already clear but before Polymarket has formally settled the market. That approach gives up one-tenth of a cent per share in exchange for getting the money back immediately. Across 7,076,042 shares, that convenience has cost roughly $7,000.

Six of the account’s seven markets have finished, and five were profitable. On September 8, its Dortmund position turned $855,026 into $1,527,690. Sevilla generated $899,268 in profit on September 11, while Brighton returned $872,456, Roma returned $496,668, and Arsenal returned $304,918. Across the six completed markets, realized profit totals $2,935,616.

The only loss that 00gringo00 experienced also followed a completely different and unusual pattern. The account spent $310,358 on Liverpool at 65 cents on September 12, within its typical range. However, the difference was how quickly it built the position. The five winning trades took between 2.7 and 6.5 hours and required 56 to 209 fills. Liverpool took only two fills over three minutes.

Which makes tonight’s Chiefs position especially controversial. At 9:02 PM UTC, the account began buying 4,853,928 Chiefs shares for $2.69 million and finished five and a half minutes later. Three orders represented 77.1% of the purchase, with all three placed within two seconds. The position is 2.7 times larger than any previous stake, is the account’s first trade outside soccer, and was funded by selling its Roma position at 99.9 cents two and a half hours earlier.

The question now is whether this unusually large bet will extend the account’s extraordinary run or become its second losing position. The wallet is already one of Polymarket’s 51 most profitable accounts by total profit and loss, and a Chiefs win would push it into the platform’s top 25. Will 00gringo00’s biggest trade, its first outside soccer, prove that the strategy works across sports, or will the account’s sudden leap in size expose the risk of moving too quickly?