Who leaves the Martinez Valero with a win on Tuesday night?

Real Madrid has not lost to Elche since March 1978, but that long unbeaten run does not fully explain why the market makes Madrid such a strong favorite on Tuesday. The clubs meet at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in the sixth round of La Liga, with Madrid unbeaten in 19 consecutive meetings and coming off a 4-1 win in their most recent match in March. Polymarket prices a Madrid win at 80 cents, compared with 13 cents for a draw and 7 cents for an Elche win.

The more important question is whether Madrid’s weakness away from home is serious enough to challenge that price. Jose Mourinho’s team is second with 12 points from five matches, but 12 of its 14 goals have come at the Bernabeu. Its only defeat also came away from home, and Madrid has scored just twice across its two away league matches.

Ordinarily, that road form would make a heavy away price uncomfortable. Elche, however, has been even less convincing at home. It has played twice at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero this season and lost both matches, falling 5-0 to Barcelona and 3-2 to Real Sociedad. Those results leave Elche with only two home goals and eight conceded, so Madrid is facing a team that has not shown it can take advantage of an opponent’s away problems.

Not to mention, Madrid has produced 14.8 expected goals while allowing only 4.6, while Elche has created 6.9 expected goals and allowed 9.9.

Madrid is also close to full strength, with no suspensions. Only Rodrygo, Éder Militão, and Ferland Mendy are unavailable. Aurélien Tchouaméni, though, is back in contention. And Kylian Mbappé has scored six goals in five league matches, tying him for the league lead.

Statistically speaking, betting on Elche doesn’t offer much hope. However, the situation is very different when you consider Real Madrid. So, at 80 cents, we are buying Real Madrid with the expectation of a potential 25% return in one day.