Will Inter Milan beat Udinese at the San Siro on September 14?

Inter Milan plays Udinese at San Siro on Monday in the fourth round of Serie A. The home side has won its first three matches and is aiming to extend its perfect start of nine points out of nine. Udinese, meanwhile, has managed to secure only four points from its first three games with one win, one draw, and one loss.

Inter has scored eight goals and conceded three so far, according to the Serie A standings. Its performances have also been stronger when measured by the quality of the chances created, as it has generated 8.6 expected goals and has allowed 3.9. Udinese, by comparison, has generated only 4.0 expected goals and allowed 5.7.

So why do these stats matter? Because when you stack Inter's advantages, they become even more important at San Siro. The team won 14 of its 19 home league matches last season, drawing three and losing two. Its 73.7% home win rate was a major part of its title-winning campaign, according to the club’s season statistics.

Udinese is therefore facing an opponent that has started the season perfectly and has been especially reliable in front of its home supporters. Its statistical chances of success during the match are just bleak. Away to the six clubs that finished above it last season, Udinese won only twice and lost four times. It also failed to score at Roma, Como and Napoli. If that pattern continues, Udinese could struggle to create enough opportunities to trouble Inter.

Udinese will have an even harder time if their absences weaken them in key areas. Center-back Solet and midfielder Piotrowski are unavailable, with Piotrowski undergoing a cardiac ablation earlier today. The team is also without Zaniolo, Palma, Arizala and Zanoli, leaving fewer options across its defense, midfield and attack.

Still, sometimes miracles do happen. On August 31, 2025, Udinese won 2-1 at San Siro against Inter Milan, with Keinan Davis scoring. And Davis starts again tonight. This victory ended seven consecutive defeats for Udinese away to Inter.

But one win does not outweigh the larger body of evidence. Inter has the better record, stronger chance-creation numbers, a more reliable defense, and a much better home record. Which is why we are betting on Inter Milan to win and buying its contract at 82 cents for a 21.95% return.