Will the United States and Iran hold another round of peace talks in 2026?

The United States and Iran last held a senior round of peace talks on June 21 and 22 in Switzerland, and no senior round has followed since. Polymarket has been running contracts on the timing of the next formally convened senior-level meeting, with different deadlines for each contract. Every expired contract so far has resolved to 'No'.

Four remain open. As of September 4, 'Yes' costs 9 cents on the September 30 deadline, 19 cents on October 31, 42 cents on December 31, and 60 cents on March 31, 2027. The September, October, and March contracts pay only if a new, formally convened, senior-level round begins by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Talks through a mediator count, provided both governments join one formal process, but technical, staff-level, and deconfliction meetings do not. Neither do handshakes, phone calls, or a round that has been announced without convening. For example, technical talks in Doha in early July did not make the July 3 or July 10 contracts pay.

On the face of it, the record argues for "Yes". Three senior rounds have been held this year:

• the first in Muscat on February 6, hosted by Oman
• the second 11 days later
• the third in June, 124 days after that

The current gap stands at 74 days. On that pattern alone, a new round before October 31 looks likelier than the October contract's 19-cent "Yes" price implies.

But the pattern was set during an active negotiation phase, and the negotiation ended in August:

• August 17. The 14-point memorandum signed on June 17 expired with no final deal, and the United States revoked its oil sanctions waivers.
• August 24. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced further sanctions under the name Operation Economic Outcast.
• August 30. The United States struck Larak Island, and Iran fired at two American bases in Jordan.

On September 1, Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said Tehran would reciprocate immediately if Washington restored the memorandum. On September 4, Vice President JD Vance said there would be no talks until attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz stopped. The United States attributes those attacks to Iran, while Iran described its response as “asymmetrical.” Each side is asking the other to move first.

Against that backdrop, Pakistan, Oman and Qatar all sent senior officials to Tehran in late August. Pakistan's interior minister, Mohsin Naqvi, said the talks ended on a "highly positive note", but none of the three has announced a date or a venue for a formal U.S.–Iran round. The United Nations General Assembly opens its high-level debate on September 22 in New York. If Iran sends senior officials, which is not certain, a round convened there would settle all contracts to "Yes".

We believe the most effective strategy is to create a basket of contracts. The September 30 and October 31 contracts, priced at 9 and 19 cents respectively, offer an asymmetrical return. We plan to allocate $30 each. On the other hand, the March 31, 2027 contract, priced at 60 cents, presents the safest option and gets a $150 allocation. Here are all the possible scenarios with this strategy, depending on when the talks begin:

• In September: all three contracts settle "Yes", returning $741.22 for a profit of $531.22.
• In October: two settle "Yes", returning $407.89 for a profit of $197.89.
• Between November 1 and March 31, 2027: only March pays, returning $250 for a profit of $40
• No talks before March 31, 2027: this is the only scenario in which we could potentially lose, and it seems highly unlikely.