Will Fuego or 9z Globant win the League of Legends global qualifier on September 16?

On Wednesday night, two South American League of Legends teams meet in a first-to-three series to decide the last American slot at Riot's new second-tier global event in Korea, which runs September 20 to October 2 with $48,000 in prize money. Polymarket prices Colombia's champion, Fuego, at 80 cents and Argentina's champion, 9z Globant, at 20 cents.

That pricing looks odd because 9z Globant has not lost a series since July 1 and won the Argentine league without dropping a single one. An unbeaten national champion should not, in a vacuum, look like such a clear underdog. The reason the market is so skewed is due to the hierarchy of the sport and the very different paths these rosters have taken to reach this final.

At the top of League of Legends sit the World Championship and the Mid-Season Invitational, the game's two premier international events. Just below them are the major regional leagues, such as Brazil's CBLOL and the LLA, Latin America's top division. Beneath those are the smaller national leagues, which are where both Fuego and 9z spent most of 2026.

Fuego has two starters who have competed well above the national-league level in recent years. Its primary damage dealer, Snaker, won the LLA in early 2024, played the Mid-Season Invitational that summer, and was still in Brazil's top division as recently as June, just three months ago. Another starter, Grell, appeared at the world championship in 2022. These are players who have been on the biggest stages in the sport and are now competing in what is effectively a regional qualifier.

By contrast, 9z Globant's most accomplished player is Nate, who played the Mid-Season Invitational in 2018. Plus, no one on the 9z roster has played in a top division since 2023, and two of its five starters have almost no professional history. For example, Warsor has played only 11 professional matches in his entire career and made his debut in March, while Uxie has won just $80 in prize money over his whole career.

So, the question is whether all of this justifies a 60-cent difference in price. GosuGamers, which ranks esports teams worldwide on a single points scale similar to chess ratings, suggests it does not. It places Fuego 34th in the world and 9z Globant 48th, which translates to roughly a 54% win probability per game and about 58% across a best-of-five series. To warrant an 80-cent price on Fuego, the skill gap would need to be roughly four times wider than what GosuGamers' ratings imply.

Additionally, because gold is used to buy equipment in the game, the gold lead at the 15-minute mark is a clean proxy for early dominance. By that measure, Snaker is clearly the best player in this series. But Nate ranks second, and he has beaten the man directly opposite him one-on-one 12 times across 10 games. Thus, the edge is not as one-sided as the market suggests.

One thing to consider is that neither team has beaten anyone of note this season. 9z's unbeaten run came against opponents ranked 50th in the world and lower, and Fuego's path was no stronger. Its final was against a team rated below 9z itself, and it lost two series to that same opponent along the way.

In short, the facts say this is a much closer match than the odds imply. 9z’s form, the relatively tight global ratings, and Nate’s individual advantage all argue against an 80–20 split.