Will Alibaba hold second place in AI web coding in September?
Anthropic’s and Alibaba's latest releases reshuffled the WebDev leaderboard overnight, but Moonshot may already be preparing to overtake one of them.
Polymarket has a market on the second-best AI lab for web coding. The issue is that the second place keeps moving as soon as a non-Anthropic model is released.
The ranking is determined by Arena's WebDev leaderboard. Two AI models are given the same job, building a web page, and a person who asked the question votes on which one did it better. About 640,000 have already voted.
Recently, Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1. As expected, it was on the board the next day at 1765, 77 points ahead of everything, and it took first place. Literally the same day, Alibaba released a new Qwen model, which landed on 1688 and took second. Moonshot's Kimi K3 sits third at 1674.
Today, prediction market traders think Alibaba will hold the second place by the end of September as it's priced the highest on the board at 49 cents.
However, we think Moonshot is the underdog here at 38 cents. Moonshot has released a new version of its Kimi model every 59 days on average since July 2025, and it has never once taken longer than 83 days. Today is day 49. It is very likely that a new version will be released this month and overtake Alibaba, as it only needs to outperform by 14 points. This is an asymmetric bet that provides 163.16% in less than a month, and it's the one we are betting on.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
