A fresh Polymarket whale bet over $3 million on an NFL match

A new Polymarket account appeared on Wednesday evening and immediately began trading with the size and speed of an established operation. The account, halvanicus, executed its first trade at 18:54:52 UTC on September 16 and, over the next 25.6 hours, moved roughly $10.8 million through five markets. By the end of that window, it still held about $3.28 million in open positions, with a realized and unrealized P&L near –$897,000.

The debut was quite brutal. halvanicus’s first major position was a roughly $2 million bet that AC Milan would win on September 16. It accumulated 4.37 million “Yes” shares across 156 fills in just over eight minutes, paying an average price around 46 cents. Milan lost, and the position went to zero, dragging the account’s P&L down to about –$1.975 million within hours. This single trade accounted for most of the wallet’s early loss and set the tone for a high-variance start.

His recovery began the following afternoon. halvanicus pivoted to Spanish football, buying about $2.16 million of Real Betis “Yes” shares at roughly 66 cents, then selling the entire position at 99.9 cents after the result. That one trade returned more than $1.1 million, cutting the drawdown by more than half. Later, smaller positions in Real Sociedad and Villarreal added "small" gains, as it turned a $90,000 outlay into a $100,000 profit.

The account’s largest remaining exposure is in the NFL. On Thursday night it built a $3.18 million position on the Buffalo Bills in the Lions–Bills market, buying 4.45 million shares at an average price near 70.5 cents. At the latest mark, that book was down about $43,000, or roughly 1.4%, leaving the Bills trade as the key swing factor for the account’s near‑term outcome.

halvanicus’s basically concentrates size in a small number of high‑liquidity events, enters and exits quickly, and pays heavily for immediacy. After the Milan blow‑up and the Betis rebound, the account sits at an inflection point. A Bills win would vault it deep into positive territory and mark one of the more dramatic first‑week turnarounds on the platform. The question is whether halvanicus can repeat the Betis‑style read in other markets, or whether the Milan trade was the template.