Will the United States ban crude oil exports before 2027?
Washington debates fuel export limits as diesel hits an all-time high above $6 a gallon
Diesel prices have just hit a record $6.285 a gallon, and global supply has been tight for months. Roughly 6.7 million barrels a day sat shut in through August, hit by Iran sanctions and tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
This mix of a supply scare and pump-price pain is what led Washington to impose the original American crude export ban in 1975, and it is no surprise that export restrictions are back in the conversation. Kalshi runs a contract on whether the United States imposes a crude export ban before 2027. “Yes” trades at 9 cents, and we think even that is too generous.
The first thing to clarify is what policymakers are actually talking about banning, because none of the serious proposals target crude. Representative Ro Khanna’s bill would ban gasoline exports on any day the national average has held at or above $3.12 for a week.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on September 15 he is open to banning diesel. The only 2026 bill that reaches crude, Brad Sherman’s Stop Oil Exports to Lower Gas Prices Act, has no cosponsors. Every proposal with real momentum aims at the fuel drivers buy, because the number hurting households is diesel, and that is a refining problem a crude ban does nothing to fix.
The administration has already said as much in public. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who runs the president’s National Energy Dominance Council, told the G20 energy ministerial in Houston on September 14 that banning exports “wouldn’t bring down what Americans pay at the pump, and could make things worse.”
He also has the economics on his side. American fuel prices are set off international benchmarks, so choking crude exports would push WTI down without moving the pump. Producers who lose their export market would pump less, taking barrels off the world market. Global crude would then rise, and that is what American fuel is priced against. Columbia’s energy policy center concluded a restriction would backfire.
Nothing, and we mean nothing, points to a potential ban this year. Which is why we are buying “No” at 96 cents to capture a 4.16% return by the end of the year.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
