Can Slovakia beat Kazakhstan on September 29?

Slovakia is trying to rebuild its national team after a painful spring. A 4-3 defeat to Kosovo on March 26 ended the country's hopes of reaching the World Cup and led to a change in coach. The replacement, Vladimír Weiss, has already won his first official match. His next test is Kazakhstan.

Polymarket gives Slovakia a 78% chance of winning on Tuesday. The match will be played in Košice as part of the Nations League.

Weiss has made the objective clear. Slovakia is expected to win its group, and he described first place as “our duty.” He also said anything less would be “a great shame” for the team. A victory over Kazakhstan would therefore do more than add three points. It would support the idea that Slovakia is moving forward under its returning coach.

Weiss came back in May after the Slovak Football Association appointed him again. His first spell lasted from 2008 to 2012 and included Slovakia's first appearance at a World Cup. He now has to restore confidence after the loss to Kosovo and turn Slovakia into a more effective attacking team.

Saturday's match against Moldova showed both progress and remaining problems. Slovakia won 2-0 in Prešov, but the performance was not convincing from the start. Weiss said his players were “nervous” during the opening 20 minutes. Slovakia took 17 shots, but only two were on target. Weiss wants the team to become more efficient and convert more of its chances.

Kazakhstan is also beginning a new era. The country hired Dutch coach John van 't Schip in August, but his first match produced only a 1-1 draw against the Faroe Islands on Saturday. That result gives Kazakhstan some momentum, but it does not make the team a strong away side.

Recent history is Kazakhstan's main source of confidence. It has won both previous meetings with Slovakia, taking a 1-0 victory away from home in June 2022 before winning 2-1 in Kazakhstan one week later. Those results are useful reminders that Slovakia cannot treat this opponent lightly.

However, Kazakhstan's record outside home matches is much less impressive. Since the beginning of 2024, it has won only one of 16 games played away from home. That makes another victory in Slovakia difficult, especially with a new coach still learning about his team.

The 78% market price, at least for now, seems reasonable. Slovakia is not guaranteed to win, but a home victory is the most likely result. And we think Weiss will be able to start his second official match with another win.