Does England beat Czechia in Prague after losing to Spain?

England's return from a third-place World Cup finish began with disappointment. A 3-2 home loss to Spain on Saturday left the team searching for answers before Tuesday's Nations League trip to Prague, where Polymarket's market on the match prices an England win at 71% probability.

Czechia faces far bigger problems heading into this match. The team crashed out of the World Cup in the first round with just one point, which cost the coach his job. His replacement, Santi Denia from Spain, becomes the first foreign coach to lead the Czech national team. Additionally, the squad lost its leading scorer when Patrik Schick quit the national team after the World Cup, and injuries have ruled out former captain Tomáš Souček and six other players.

England deals with its own injury concerns, as Declan Rice and Cole Palmer are among five players who pulled out injured. Yet Saturday's performance against Spain offered reasons for optimism. England led Spain 2-1 at halftime through goals from Anthony Gordon and captain Harry Kane, showing they could compete with the newly crowned world champions.

Kane missed a penalty that would have extended the lead to 3-1, and Spain responded with two more goals to win 3-2. Head coach Thomas Tuchel said afterward that his team outplayed Spain for most of the match after the opening 10 or 12 minutes, suggesting the result did not reflect the balance of play.

So, if England was this strong against one of the toughest teams in football, it’s unlikely they will underperform against Czechia. Which is why we expect England to win in Prague, and the 71-cent price looks extremely conservative to us given the gap between these two squads.