Can David Crowley win Wisconsin's race for governor?

Wisconsin is picking a new governor this fall, and the market is treating it as a near-lock for Democrats. Tony Evers, who has held the job since 2019, is not running again, so the seat is open. David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, faces Republican Tom Tiffany, a congressman from northern Wisconsin. On Kalshi, traders give the Democrats an 83% chance of keeping the office.

That is a very high probability for a state Donald Trump won by less than one point in 2024, but the midterm backdrop explains it. The reason is that during midterms, voters typically punish whichever party holds the White House. And Wisconsin voters are not happy with this president. In Marquette Law School's August poll, the state's best-known survey, 59% disapproved of Trump and only 40% approved. So, logically, Tiffany, being a republican, gets tied to that unpopularity too, especially considering the fact that Trump has endorsed him.

The poll also shows how the race breaks once turnout is factored in.  Among likely voters, the people most likely to actually cast a ballot, Crowley led 49% to 44%. Among all registered voters, it was tied at 44%. In other words, Crowley leads only if his side is more eager to vote.

Wisconsin voters have already shown they will reject Trump-backed conservatives in low-turnout races. In April 2025, about 2.4 million people voted in a state Supreme Court contest, down a million from November, and Susan Crawford, the liberal, won by nearly nine points despite $20 million in spending from Elon Musk and his allies for the conservative.

The biggest question mark is whether Crowley can survive Tiffany's fundraising edge long enough for that turnout math to work. Tiffany had about $3 million in the bank by midyear, while Crowley, who won a crowded primary in August by fewer than 4,000 votes, had about $463,000 at the end of July. And with 38% of voters saying they do not know enough about Crowley to judge him, Tiffany's ads will likely shape the race early.

But even with that risk, as mentioned earlier, everything still tilts toward Crowley. Crowley should become Wisconsin's next governor, and we would put his chances much higher than the market's 83%.