Does Anthropic IPO in October?
Despite Anthropic's IPO timeline keeping shifting, we found one Kalshi contract that still looks mispriced
Anthropic, the maker of the Claude AI chatbot, spent the summer putting in place every piece a company needs before it sells stock to the public. It already submitted a draft S-1 confidentially to the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, 2026.
Kalshi runs a market on when Anthropic confirms an IPO. 'Yes' before October 1 costs 4 cents, while 'Yes' before November 1 costs 73 cents.
So, why does a gap this size even exist in the first place? Because Bloomberg reported on June 3 that Anthropic had picked Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to lead the deal and was considering going public as soon as October. Krishna Rao, the finance chief who helped take Airbnb public, has been running investor meetings since at least August 13.
On September 4, four banks each committed roughly $1.25bn to a $15bn credit line, which is how underwriting roles get handed out. The business is growing into the timing too, as annualized revenue reached $65bn in August, against $9bn at the end of 2025.
Additionally, Reuters reported on September 4 that the public prospectus, once expected right after Labor Day, had slipped to late September, with marketing no earlier than mid-October and a listing aimed at the days just before the November midterms.
So, ‘Yes’ before November 1 is what we are planning to bet on. At 73 cents, the contract returns 37%, providing the safest and simultaneously the highest return on the board.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
