Why copy‑trading this polymarket whale may be a trap

A Polymarket bettor called raybanman has bet $2.25 million in just 12 days and sits at about $161,000 profit. So, should you copy-trade him? Well, we looked at his on-chain activity, and the answer is not yet.

He has deposited about $1.1 million since September 9, and on September 21 he held about $1.26 million with no bets open. Across 22 wagers, he has won 11 and lost 11. Two-thirds of his money went on bets priced between 40 and 59 cents. Basically, he bets on coin flips and wins 50% of the time. For now, there is little sign he knows something the market does not.

His profit also rests on a handful of huge wins. Four games each made him more than his entire $140,000 gain:

• Saints vs. Ravens in the NFL for about $310,000
• Atlético Madrid's 2-1 win over Real Madrid for about $167,000
• Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest for about $166,000
• Newcastle vs. Hull for about $162,000

His worst game, Manchester City's 5-3 win over Sunderland, cost him about $322,000.

This is where copy-traders usually get caught. People start following a bettor after a hot run, and raybanman's was indeed hot, as he won 7 of his first 11 bets, putting him up about $263,000. But on Sunday, September 20, he bet $1.4 million across seven games. This was his biggest day. And, unfortunately, he won only four and lost seven and gave back about $128,000, almost half of his total winnings. Anyone who copied his Sunday bets would have lost money.

To put it simply, copy-trading raybanman means chasing a 12-day sample where the total profit is smaller than any one of his four biggest wins and smaller than his worst loss. Until he has a much longer record, his bets are not worth following, however large they look.