Can Democrats hold the Kansas governor's office?
Polls, money and ballot structure all point in one direction for Kansas governor, yet the odds still leave room for a surprise
Kansas has not elected a Democratic governor with a majority of the vote since 2006, yet Kalshi's market on the next governor prices the Democrats at 30 cents. The contract asks which party gets sworn in next January. We think the Republicans will, and they are too cheap at 70 cents, and here’s why.
The reason is that the Democrats' recent success in Kansas ended with Laura Kelly. She won in 2018 and 2022, but never with more than half the vote. In 2018 she got 48.03% against Kris Kobach, and in 2022 she got 49.54% against Derek Schmidt. The last Democrat to actually cross 50% was Kathleen Sebelius back in 2006. Kelly is term-limited now, so the 30-cent price assumes a Democratic advantage that no longer exists.
Kelly tried to pass her coalition to state Senator Ethan Corson, betting he could win over the independents and moderate Republicans she relied on. She endorsed him publicly. But primary voters picked Cindy Holscher instead on August 4. The problem with Holscher is that she trails badly on money. As of late July, she had about $65,000 cash on hand, while Republican Ty Masterson had over $430,000.
Additionally, the polls show Masterson already above 50%. Emerson College had him at 51% to Holscher's 44% in mid-September, and RealClearPolling's average puts him up by about seven points. Even if every undecided voter broke to Holscher, she would still be behind, which means she has to convince people who already support Masterson to switch sides.
Holscher also faces a harder ballot than Kelly did. Kelly had third-party candidates siphoning votes in both her races, worth about 9% in 2018 and 3% in 2022. This year there are only two tickets for governor, so no protest vote to bleed Masterson's total.
The math is just against Holscher. She trails in a two-person race, has less money, and faces a Republican already above 50%. Not to mention, she needs to do what no Kansas Democrat has done in 20 years. Which is exactly the reason why we are buying "Yes" on the “Ty Masterson” contract for a 42.86% return.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
