Will OpenAI list before Anthropic does?

OpenAI has told its own staff that it plans to go public in 2027, while signaling that rival Anthropic could beat it to market this year. At an all‑hands on August 19, 2026, CFO Sarah Friar said OpenAI “will be a public company in 2027” and acknowledged that Anthropic might pull the cover off its confidential filing and list as early as September, adding, “That’s OK. We are running our own race.”

That timeline is now baked into a Kalshi market asking which lab will confirm an IPO first, with contracts open until 2040. “Anthropic” trades at 97 cents, implying a 97% chance, while “OpenAI” sits at 9 cents. The gap just shows how much further Anthropic has moved since both companies filed confidential draft registrations in early June.

Claude maker has since lined up lead bankers (Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs), secured a $15 billion credit line from four banks on September 4, and has had its CFO meeting investors since August. It also reports a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate, ahead of OpenAI’s reported $40 billion. By contrast, OpenAI’s own messaging points to a 2027 IPO, and there is no comparable public evidence of an imminent 2026 listing.

We’ve already covered the separate Anthropic IPO‑date market in another analysis, and the facts lean heavily toward an Anthropic IPO before November. On that view, we are buying “No” on the "OpenAI" contract at 91 cents, targeting a return of 9.89%, as it's the highest-return option on the board at the moment.