A Polymarket whale just lost $1.5 million on one soccer match

On September 15, a single Polymarket wallet triggered three whale alerts in the span of 28 minutes, each one buying “Yes” on Deportivo Alavés to beat Valencia. Two of the trades hit at 10:58 AM Eastern for $113,981 and $131,794, and a third followed at 11:26 AM for $963,210. Combined, those three prints totaled $1,208,985.

The accumulation didn’t stop there. Between 10:58 and 11:25, the same wallet filled the position more than 100 additional times, adding another $301,205. By the end of the sequence, it held 2,519,806 shares at an average price of 60.8 cents, for a total outlay of roughly $1.53 million. Unfortunately, Alavés did not win, and the entire position went to zero. That single loss wiped out 41.9% of the wallet’s lifetime profit.

We highlighted this account just two days earlier, on September 14, when it was only seven days old and had just staked $2.69 million on the Kansas City Chiefs, its first non‑soccer bet, which it won. At the time, the open question was whether its edge could travel across sports, and the early read was quite mixed. The Chiefs bet looked like a successful cross‑sport expansion, but this Alavés wager marks the second straight losing soccer position after a Liverpool–Fulham draw on September 12.

Despite the setback, the wallet remains one of Polymarket’s most profitable accounts. It has slipped from the top 25 to inside the top 42 by lifetime P&L, but it still sits at $3,654,637 in cumulative profit. 

His selection rule we identified in our previous piece remains intact. All of its positions so far have been priced between 52.9 and 66.7 cents, dollar‑weighted at 58.21, with no longshots and no heavy favorites. But what has changed is risk sizing. The Alavés bet alone was larger than the wallet’s entire profit cushion from earlier wins.

At this pace, the account is making binary, high‑variance bets that can swing its equity in a single market. If it continues to stake this size relative to its bankroll, just two more losses of similar magnitude would be enough to wipe out the whole account.