Does Kansas send a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1932?

Adam Hamilton has spent 36 years building the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States, and on November 3, he is trying to become the first Kansas Democrat elected to the Senate since 1932. Despite his efforts, the Republican contract for the incumbent Roger Marshall costs 83 cents on Kalshi.

Hamilton won a nine-candidate primary on August 4 with 34.8% of the vote, having never held elected office. He also raised $3.66m from about 16,000 donors between April and June, against $611,000 for Marshall over the same three months. Logically, the ratings followed the money.

Right after the primary, the groups that rate Senate races moved Kansas:

• Cook Political Report changed Kansas from Solid to Likely Republican on August 5
• Sabato’s Crystal Ball made the same change that week
• Inside Elections followed on September 3 after seeing private polls that were within the margin of error.

A few other signs point the same way too. For example, the Kansas Livestock Association backed Marshall in 2016 and 2020. But this year, it withheld its endorsement.

And lastly, since January 2025, Democrats have run about 12.5 points ahead of Kamala Harris’s 2024 numbers in 110 special elections.

So, this race might be closer than people think.

Nonetheless, the only public poll that showed a tied race, 46% Marshall, 45% Hamilton, came from Public Policy Polling on August 7–8. It was paid for by a Democratic group and surveyed only 569 people.

And history still favors Marshall. In 2020, he beat Barbara Bollier by 11.4 points even though she raised $29 million. On top of that, going into the fall, Marshall has about $5.4 million in the bank, while Hamilton has about $1.7 million.

Although it may appear that backing Hamilton for almost a 500% return is the optimal strategy, as mentioned, the facts are not entirely in favor of it. We would estimate that the probability of him winning is not as low as they are, but rather around 30%. However, it is still not a 50/50 chance, so it is not a viable option.

Like it or not, Marshall remains the favored choice. Therefore, purchasing his contract at 83 cents is the smartest decision in this situation.