LIVEA top 400 Polymarket whale turned a $140,000 baseball bet into $305,000
One huge Blue Jays wager just delivered a six-figure win for a shadowy Polymarket trader whose best moves could be far more selective than they appear
Our alert system fired at 9:33 on Monday night, September 7, on a $140,260 order for Toronto Blue Jays against the Athletics. The buyer, who trades on Polymarket under the name BrotherObama, went big on the "Over" for the total runs line set at 8.5, meaning the two teams needed to combine for at least 9 runs for the bet to win. He bought 304,914 shares at 46 cents each.
He doubled down on the same idea with a second, riskier line: 15,927 shares of the Over on a 9.5 total, bought at 57 and 55.9 cents, which required 10 or more runs to pay. The game finished with exactly 9 runs. The 8.5 contract paid out at $1 per share, returning $304,913.95 and locking in a $161,370 profit. Sadly, the 9.5 contract missed, but the loss was limited, as he sold it back at 25 cents, losing only $5,336. Together, the two bets netted $156,034, his biggest single-night win in a wallet that has traded more than $12.5 million across over 346 bets since early July.
So is he worth following? Only when he bets big. Let us explain.
Although his success rate is not that high, he typically wins when he sizes up. On September 7 he placed six bets, and four of them were ordinary sized: Angels-Red Sox Over ($30,750), Guardians-Orioles Under ($35,797), the Braves to win ($25,775), and Cubs-Brewers Over ($35,877). All four lost.
The other two were much larger: a $61,500 bet on the Diamondbacks at 50 cents, which turned into $120,000, and the Blue Jays total that paid out as described.
September was quite similar. He had three winning days totaling $355,050 against five losing days totaling $245,710, for a net gain of $109,750. As of today, he holds no positions, and he is ranked 402nd all-time on Polymarket and 258th in sports.
One should understand that two months is not a track record, and BrotherObama loses money on five days out of eight. Copy-trading this wallet, even occasionally or on the wrong day, would be catastrophic. However, the markets and bets he chooses are worth looking into, especially once he risks losing $50,000 or more per bet.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
