How much will the new iPhone 18 Pro cost?

Apple is expected to announce the iPhone 18 Pro’s starting price at its event on Wednesday, September 9. Polymarket traders have been trying to predict that number since June, with contracts covering several possible price thresholds.

The market currently puts the odds of a starting price of at least $1,000 at 99 cents and at least $1,100 at 95.5 cents. The more interesting contract asks whether the phone will start at $1,200 or more, and it trades at 27 cents.

Initially it may look cheap, but it pays only if the official starting price is $1,200 or higher. If Apple prices the phone at $1,199, which is the figure many analysts expect, the contract settles as 'No'.

In reality, the whole market is not simply a bet on whether Apple raises the price because they will. It is a bet on the size of the increase:

• A $100 increase would put the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,199 and would not trigger the contract.
• A $200 increase would put it at $1,299 and would make the contract pay.
• A starting price of exactly $1,200 would also qualify, although Apple has basically never used such a round number for an iPhone.

The original iPhone started at $599, the iPhone X at $999, and the current Pro model at $1,099. Apple has generally preferred prices ending in $9, meaning that a $1,199 launch price could be the most natural outcome, and a frustrating one for traders who bought the $1,200-or-more contract.

However, there is also the case for a larger increase, and it's due to memory.

The chips used for phone storage and RAM are competing for production capacity with the high-bandwidth memory used in AI data centers and alongside Nvidia’s accelerators. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have increasingly directed capacity toward the customers willing to pay the most. Thus, DRAM prices are forecast to rise this year, and memory can represent a big share of a smartphone’s manufacturing cost.

Apple has already started passing those costs on to customers. In June, it raised the price of the 14-inch MacBook Pro by $300, the iPad Pro by $200 and the iPad Air by $150. It also increased prices for products including the Apple TV, HomePod and Vision Pro, saying it had absorbed higher costs for as long as it could. The iPhone was the only exception in the company's product line.

The bearish case for the $1,200-or-more contract is that Apple may limit the increase to $100. Mark Gurman expects the iPhone 18 Pro to start at $1,199, partly because Samsung and Google have raised comparable flagship prices by roughly $100. Apple could decide to match them rather than impose a larger increase.

Other estimates are more aggressive. IDC has discussed increases of up to $200 for Pro models, while Jeff Pu has suggested a possible increase of $250 to $300. The price increases Apple applied to its MacBook Air and 14-inch MacBook Pro in June also show that the company is willing to make unusually large adjustments when component costs rise.

At 27 cents, the Polymarket contract offers a return of roughly 270.37% if the iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,200 or more. We think the contract is worth the risk due to its asymmetric nature.