Will Jon Ossoff keep his Georgia Senate seat?

Georgia's Senate race is heading for a clean finish on November 3. The last two cycles went to a second round because a Libertarian siphoned off just enough votes to keep both major-party candidates under 50% that Georgia law requires to win outright.

This year that is very unlikely to happen. The Libertarian Party ended its petition drive on July 10 far short of the signatures it needed, leaving only Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and Republican Representative Mike Collins on the ballot. With no third name to split the vote, the winner will be whoever clears 50% plus one on Election Day, and the data points to Ossoff.

Kalshi's Georgia Senate market prices Ossoff's party at 94% to keep the seat, and it’s quite easy to understand why. Collins has yet to lead a single public poll, even in surveys from firms that usually lean Republican. The Trafalgar Group put Ossoff up 6.6 points on September 12, and Quantus Insights had him up 4.1 four days later. A Fox News poll in June had him up 13, so Ossoff has a consistent lead across the cycle.

Another reason why Ossoff is ahead is due to the immense resources he has at hand. At the end of June, Ossoff had $42.6 million in the bank, while Collins had only $2.1 million and owed $462,000.

That leaves a race with a clear favorite, a clear ballot, and a clear date. Georgia's last two Senate elections needed runoffs. This one looks set to be settled on November 3, and not narrowly. A Republican needs a lot of money to win a close race in Georgia, and Collins does not have it. That makes Ossoff a heavy favorite, and if anything, the market's 94% undersells him.

Collins would need a late break in the polls and a sudden infusion of cash to have a real shot. Neither is in sight, and the timeline is too short for either to materialize. And that makes Ossoff a heavy favorite, and if anything, the market's 94% undersells him.