How this Polymarket trader turned -$1M into $2.27M

In the two days before the World Cup kicked off in June, a brand-new Polymarket account called Kch-Temp deposited about $730,000. One week into the tournament, it was down more than $1 million, with just $1,937 of cash left outside its open bets. Three months later, he sits 65th on Polymarket's all-time profit list, up about $2.27 million. How did he do it?

The account’s turnaround began when it stopped treating every type of sports contract as equally predictable. Its early World Cup positions focused heavily on low-scoring games, and the tournament immediately punished his view. Germany beat Curaçao 7-1, France defeated Senegal 3-1, and England beat Croatia 4-2. Those matches cost Kch-Temp about $1.23 million, most of it through bets on low goal totals.

A second deposit of $447,000 gave the account enough capital to continue, but the recovery came due to him changing his strategy. Kch-Temp began concentrating on the winner of each match, most of the time taking the side that the market appeared to underestimate. On June 27, bets against Egypt and Cabo Verde helped generate an $872,000 daily profit. By July 1, the account had withdrawn $1.38 million.

The difference between the two approaches shows that he finally found his edge. Kch-Temp has made $2.37 million from 172 winner contracts, while its 124 bets on total goals or points have lost $167,000. The World Cup alone accounted for a $720,000 loss in the latter category. Whatever method he is using to capture this, it appears to work better when the question is who wins than when the question is how much scoring takes place.

So, with the newly found edge,  Kch-Temp moved on to the NFL. Across his first two weekends, every team he backed was an underdog. On September 20, he selected the Browns, Vikings, Steelers, Titans and Jets to win outright, according to our alert system. Although the strategy did not produce a clean sweep, it did not need one. The Browns and Vikings won, and their payouts left the five-bet group $211,000 in profit despite the other three losses.

So, the question that everyone will ask is whether he is worth copy-trading. Kch-Temp’s record suggests that winner markets, especially unpopular underdogs, have been the source of his gains. Total-goal and total-points markets have not produced the same results.

We think that makes Kch-Temp more useful as a source of ideas. The account’s outright winner positions may reveal where it sees value against public sentiment. And we would certainly ignore his total-goal positions unless he shows a consistent edge there over the coming months.