Can Finland beat Belarus in Helsinki on September 29?
Finland looks strong at home against Belarus, but the market is pricing a much tighter Nations League clash than the stats suggest.
Finland's next Nations League match on September 29 looks like a routine home game, but the market is not treating it that way. Finland’s soccer team is priced at only 57% to beat Belarus, even though Belarus has not won a competitive match in more than two years.
Belarus last won a competitive match on September 8, 2024, in Luxembourg. Since then, it has played 11 official matches, drawing five and losing six. It scored only six goals during that run and conceded 23.
The team tried to change its direction by appointing Viktor Goncharenko as coach in January. Goncharenko previously led Belarusian club BATE Borisov into the Champions League, Europe's top club competition. Belarus then won three friendly matches and drew another under his management. Those results looked encouraging, but friendly matches do not count toward the team's competitive record.
The first official test under Goncharenko came on Saturday, September 26, in Albania. Belarus lost 2-0 and managed only two shots on target. The defeat extended Belarus's winless competitive run to 11 games.
Finland, meanwhile, arrives in better form. On the same day Belarus lost in Albania, Finland beat San Marino 7-0. The result should not be overstated because San Marino is one of the weakest teams in European football. Still, Finland enters its home match with more confidence and far more attacking momentum.
Most importantly, Belarus has never beaten Finland in five meetings. Finland won two of those games, while the other three ended in draws. Their last competitive meeting in Helsinki, played at the same stadium in June 2013, ended with a 1-0 Finland victory.
The overall picture favors the home side. Belarus scores about once every two competitive games, concedes about twice per game, and has lost six of its last 11 official matches. Finland has home advantage, a better recent result, and a perfect record against Belarus in terms of losses avoided.
For those reasons, we expect Finland to win on Tuesday. However, the safer way to express that view may be to buy “No” on Belarus at 83 cents. This position wins if Finland wins or the match ends in a draw, and loses only if Belarus wins, which seems unlikely to happen.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
